The Dragon Has Three Heads

[Rakkis]

Originally Posted by Weasel Soup

The 2 family names Jorah always mentions when discussing the Usurper are Stark and Lannister, and Jorah's personal distaste for Eddard.

If a Tyrion or Jon or Arya is involved will Dany pretty much ignore what little history of Westeros she knows?

Given Jorah's betrayal, i see Dany being more open to different views of history. In addition i don't really think she knows exactly how mad Aerys was and the atrocities he committed.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Weasel, Rakkis....

I dont know Dany is going to be so quick to dismiss what she has heard before. Her current advisor on Westeros is Selmy (or as I like to call him Barristan frickin Selmy) and he has a definite distaste for Lannisters and Baratheons. Its going to be the distaste for Lannisters thats going to bring this thing to a head....there is no way she can accept not taking Jaimes head....or Tommen and Myrcella....so the Lannisters as a whole are going to have to be rooted out. Stannis is going to have to go as well....

So maybe she leaves the north unscathed (except for the passing of the Others, the culling of their ruling family and the occupation of their capital theyre doing pretty good right?) and Highgarden and the Arbor both bend the knee along with Dorne....(even though I dont see the Tyrells bending the knee at this point but maybe Im wrong).

The only thing Im certain of at this point is that Jaime, Cersei, Tommen, Myrcella and Stannis are all going to have to be dead for her to take the throne securely. Regardless of her own leanings in the matter.

[TK-421]

Originally Posted by Aegon the Unworthy

(even though I dont see the Tyrells bending the knee at this point but maybe Im wrong).

Well, my desert friend, I think you are WRONG on this one.

Jaime, leave him to either Bran or Tyrion to deal with.

Otherwise, Dany is getting some of the best advice from Barristan the frickin' Bold.

[Boaz]

The Tyrells may have the largest military force, but they're not gonna cast it away on a lark. I think the Tyrells, as much or more than the other houses, know how to go with the flow. Mace, allied with Dorne and possibly the Greyjoys, could have fought Robert and Ned for another year or so. Mace also could have found someone to father a child on Margaery, call the child Renly's heir, and have continued the crazy war of the Five Kings. Neither time did Mace push his luck. As soon as an easy victory eluded him, he quickly made peace and got on the winning side.

Mace and Olenna remind me of Robert the Bruce's father in Braveheart... always scheming, never commiting, ever vigilant for opportunities. If they can get one of Mace's children to be one of the heads, then they'll do it. If Dany refuses them, then they'll bow the knee and wait for another chance.

The Tyrells are aware of a number of facts. First, the Martells are their mortal enemies. The Iron Throne counts on this enmity as part of it's checks and balances to provide stability. Neither family will let the other get too powerful.

Second, the high lords of the Andals, i.e. the Lannisters and the Arryns and the ancient families that serve them view the Tyrells as upstarts. The Tullys and the Tyrells greatly benefited from Aegon the Conqueror. He promoted both of them to overlord status. If someone like Tywin Lannister was the real power in the realm for very long, then the Tyrells might find themselves replaced by another upstart... this one grateful to the current regime. Also, because they are viewed as upstarts the Tyrells are probably less able to lead a victorious coalition than the Lannisters and Arryns.

Third, they know they are powerful. They may be newcomers, they may have archenemies, but they have great military and economic influence. Only by being completely foolish can they be omitted from any alliance that will rule Westeros. All of their competitors must account for Highgarden. So if Mace and Olenna are open to offers and circumstances, they are likely to gain more power.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

TK allow me to explain a little more indepth....after allowing that I may be wrong. Im okay with that.

I think before Tywins death the Tyrells were allied to the throne for reasons of expediency. While Olenna would always plot to gain the throne for her family I think she realized that Tywin was a shrewd opponent for her.

When he died that created a shift. Cersei is the voice behind Tommen and as such easily replaceable. We know that, Olenna knows that, the only who doesnt is Mace. But really....

The Tyrells (or more specifically Olenna) covet the throne. That much is clear. With Dany in power they have one chance of gaining control (which Ill address later) but Tommen is a ripe plum waiting to be swayed. How can they let that chance possibly slide past?

I think theyre so close at this point they will fight. Yes its likely they will lose, but with their dreaded enemies the Martells likely to be Danys staunchest supporters, it would be a far fall for Olenna and her ilk to switch sides now. In fact with Olenna closing in on death maybe she feels the pressure of the clock to put one of her brood on the throne. Knowing her progeny arent as shrewd as her this may be a deadline she has imposed on herself.

Now I think if the Tyrells are going to waver, then they already have. I believe if Loras is actually not burned horribly and lying on a pallet in Kings Landing, then he is on his way eastward. His instructions are simple, ally with and possibly woo the Queen of Dragons.

[Boaz]

Originally Posted by Aegon the Unworthy

I believe if Loras is actually not burned horribly and lying on a pallet in Kings Landing, then he is on his way eastward. His instructions are simple, ally with and possibly woo the Queen of Dragons.

Since Loras wears the White, they Tyrells are beyond plotting... this is overt treason.

How will the Tyrells compete with the Martells? The Martells have secretly aided the Targaryens since the Trident. The Martells only bowed the knee after the Tyrells and the whole other six kingdoms did. The Martells planned on marrying their heir to the last Targaryen. The Martells have a young male heir ready to gain her trust, through marriage if need be. The Martells have one of the Baratheon heirs in their control. The Martells have an army aching to spill Lannister blood. The Martells have supplied brides before to the Targaryens.

The Tyrells, on the other hand, can plead ignorance of Dany's plight and perhaps her very existence. The Tyrells have a pretty boy trying to gain Dany's hand. The Tyrells have a large fleet. The Tyrells have the largest army in Westeros. The Tyrells have money. The Tyrells don't have Tommen in hand, but they could seize him at a moment's notice.

I think sending Loras to gain an alliance with Dany is a worse idea than sending Victarion. Loras on horseback will remind Dany of the gallant fool slain by Belwas. He may be every Westerosi maiden's dream, but he'll pale in comparison to Drogo... Victarion likewise. Victarion and Loras are fit to be guards and captains, but not consorts. We don't know Quentyn, but from what Doran's said Quentyn's been groomed to rule. We can't compare him to Drogo either, but I wonder if Quentyn would even try to put on the appearance of a mighty hero. He could be a solid partner and advisor to Dany.

Originally Posted by Aegon the Unworthy

In fact with Olenna closing in on death maybe she feels the pressure of the clock to put one of her brood on the throne. Knowing her progeny arent as shrewd as her this may be a deadline she has imposed on herself.

Is it feasible to compare Olenna to the old time, hard line communists in the Soviet Union and China who've died out? I remember hearing from the seventies through today, "Those guys built all those weapons. They hate us. They'll never go to the grave without using their weapons. They won't leave this earth without trying to achieve their twisted goals." Well, the Soviet empire fell apart without a nuke being fired and China has Hong Kong and Macau back and will find more measures of common ground with Taiwan without invasion.

Or I mayhaps we could compare Olenna to the fanatic Nazis or the Japanese Imperial Army and Navy who all decided to move against their enemies in this life. Their success was short lived.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Well Boaz, you got to admit most of the other principle Tyrells are accounted for. You can't send just anyone to treat with a Queen coming to conquer you. Mace and Olenna are out due to age and infirmity, Willas would be perfect except he's infirm himself and that could be seen as an insult. So its between Garlan and Loras, and if youre like everyone else in Westeros you underestimate the new Queen and send Loras.

I think that point is key, Olenna is likely to underestimate Dany. For that matter, she doesnt know what the Martells are doing. All in all I think you're right, if Loras is out there wooing Dany its a recipe for disaster.

Of course I dont think Loras is out there, I think hes lying in a semi concious state wishing he was dead in the bowels of the Red Keep. He's there and he's going to recover. Thats the only way for his story arc to follow Jaime's.

[Boaz]

Agreed. Garlan or Loras.

Agreed. Everyone underestimating Dany.

Agreed. No one knows who else is wooing Dany, but a shrewd player would assume others will try.

I'm uncertain about Loras' story still imitating Jaime's. Perhaps he's been rendered physically incapbable of fighting. Does Loras have an incestuous reltationship with his sister? Will he father a king? Did Loras kill Joffrey or will he kill Tommen? Perhaps part of Jaime's redemption will be to free Loras from his self destructive pattern.

[BridgerandObie]

Excuse the ignorance but I am really trying to understand why everyone thinks the Tyrells are out to woo a queen that most smallfolk have never even heard of. They seem to have thrown their only egg into the Lannister basket as they married their only match-worthy female to two consecutive kings. While Dany may yet prove to be forgiving like King Robert, what do the Tyrells have to show for good faith other than marrying Margery to Renly, Joffrey, and now little Tommen, all usurpers in the eyes of Dany. While the Martells have kept distance from the War of the Five Kings and may have bargaining tools, it seems to me the Tyrells will be, in Dany's eyes, on accord with the Lannisters and Baratheons; traitors, traitors, traitors. Surely by the time of her arrival in Westeros Selmy will have filled Dany in a little more about how her family lost their kingdom, and whom was involved.

[Boaz]

Wooing Dany or jumping off the Lannister bandwagon is the current fad. The Martells and the Greyjoys are doing it, the Seven only know what Littlefinger and Varys are doing about it, so why not the Tyrells also? I agree that the Tyrells can't possibly show the track record of loyalty to the Targaryens that the Martells, Daynes and Darrys can.

The Tyrells don't know it yet, but they might have hung themselves on their marriages.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

B&O, Im not assuming the Tyrells are jumping ship, just kinda postulating if they are going to, they probably already have. However, they have put themselves into a position of power this generation by being pretty shrewd, so I wont put it past them.

Boaz, I kinda assumed Loras was the culprit when it came to Margy and her maidenhead (I feel vaguely dirty typing that). We know she was receiving the moontea from Pycelle (I believe that particular bit but who it was for I dont know), the Bard Cersei had tortured said she (Margy) was never alone except with her ladies or her brother, and the Septa said Margy aint a virgin....we know Renly didnt do the deed (insert ambiguous sexuality reference here)....so I kinda drew the straight comparison from Cersei/Jaime.

I think Jaime and Loras are on similar arcs, Jaime is just about 10 years ahead on the emotional development scale. Not that Jaime is that far along, its just Loras is that far behind.

[BridgerandObie]

Originally Posted by Boaz

Wooing Dany or jumping off the Lannister bandwagon is the current fad. The Martells and the Greyjoys are doing it, the Seven only know what Littlefinger and Varys are doing about it, so why not the Tyrells also?

Yes, but I don't understand what the Martells have done to show the Lannisters any kind of love. Yes, they brought a procession to King's Landing, but was that not only Oberyn arriving for a long awaited revenge. Yes, they did promise Trystan to Marcella, but (I may be wrong) they did not leave a ward in her place, so the Martells did nothing but seemingly gain a hostage in the exchange, and Trystan is not even heir to Dorne. It simply seems to me that Doran, as nasty as his appendages may be, may prove to be one of the more subtle and ruthless (in an obscure way) players in the Game of Thrones.

[AandKsavetheDAY]

Bran dealing with Jaime.. thats a possibility that I like. My one beef with the Loras going to woo Dany is that I can't see another to be Margaery's fighter. Garlan couldn't go woo Dany, he's married. But the idea of Loras going is interesting... weren't the Tyrells loyal to the Targs during the trident? or am I thinking of a different house?

[Boaz]

Originally Posted by Aegon the Unworthy

we know Renly didnt do the deed (insert ambiguous sexuality reference here)

I don't accept Renly's sexuality as abmiguous. We know which way he leaned. Ambidextrous? Possibly.

B&O, okay, saying the Martells were jumping off the Lannister bandwagon assumed that they were on it... which they never were. A better way to put it would be to say that Doran is nearly ready to stop wearing his mask of courtesy, he's almost ready to spill blood.

[Nefela]

Hi people, my first post!
I know that many of you think that Jon is L+R son an I agree with that theory. But I don’t think that Jon is one of the “Dragon trio”.
Jon looks like a Stark, he and Ghost have some sort of supernatural connection. He has Ghost so I don’t believe that Martin will “give” him a dragon as well. It seems just a little to much. Stark blood in Jon is much stronger then Targaryens, so I don’t believe we will see him riding a dragon.