[SPOILERS] AFfC General Discussion

[Boaz]

Some thoughts and observations.

I went back and read the physical desriptions of Oberyn, Obara, Nym, Tyene, and Arellas. Oberyn, Nym, and Arellas are all described as dark haired with a widow's peak. Arellas has a Dornish accent. Also, Doran states that Sarella is off somewhere outside of Dorne. Sarella is youner than Tyene (who is about 22-23) and Arellas is described as about 19-20, iirc. I believe Arellas is Sarella, although if I was doing espionage I don't think I'd go by Zoab... someone clever like Nevar, Radsa, or Toofrednu Ayra would find me out.

Aemon's death is significant in another respect. I don't know if he figured out that Jon and Tyrion (if some of the fan theories are true) are Targaryens, but he certainly cannot testify to this if he did. If he and Rhaegar did discuss TPTWP, I find it interesting that he might have perceived or missed those two under his nose. Anyway, this means that Howland Reed (for Jon) and Varys (for Tyrion) might be the only ones who could support their Targaryen claims.

If Jaqen H'ghar has replaced Pate in Oldtown, who is he working for? Varys and Illyrio leap to mind. He might be there to infiltrate their knowledge on Dragons, Magic, and Dragonslayer Weapons on Dany's behalf. Or is Jaqen working for someone else? It seems to be a popular notion that Euron used a Faceless Man to dispose of Balon. Perhaps Jaqen is acting on Euron's behalf. Euron takes knowledge, power, and weapons wherever he can find them... he's not bound to driftwood, saltwater, and longships like Aeron. The other person with enough cash, enough ambition, and enough desire for secrets is Littlefinger. But without a Petyr POV, we really don't know much of what he's up to.

Of the major players in the Game of Thrones, only Dany and Cersei have POVs. Yes, Ned and Tyrion were Hands, but they never desired to take over. They are the biggest support pieces in the game, but they are not Kings (or Queens as the case may be). The Kings all have their stories told through other character's POVs. Davos tells about Stannis, Theon tells about Balon, Sansa and Tyrion tell about Joff, Ned tells about Robert, and Catelyn tells about Robb and Renly. Cersei is not as wise as Dany, nor is she a sympathetic character. I'd say she's not going to win the Game. Since Dany is the only claimant to the Iron Throne who has a POV (and comparing ASOIAF with James Clavell's Shogun, the closest comparison is style, content, and POV imo, where Toranaga was the only claimant with a POV), I think Dany will win the Game of Thrones.

[Culhwch]

Originally Posted by Boaz

If Jaqen H'ghar has replaced Pate in Oldtown, who is he working for? Varys and Illyrio leap to mind. He might be there to infiltrate their knowledge on Dragons, Magic, and Dragonslayer Weapons on Dany's behalf. Or is Jaqen working for someone else? It seems to be a popular notion that Euron used a Faceless Man to dispose of Balon. Perhaps Jaqen is acting on Euron's behalf. Euron takes knowledge, power, and weapons wherever he can find them... he's not bound to driftwood, saltwater, and longships like Aeron. The other person with enough cash, enough ambition, and enough desire for secrets is Littlefinger. But without a Petyr POV, we really don't know much of what he's up to.

A lot of this discussion comes down to timeframe, I think. You can immediately rule out his working for Dany, because she would of had to employ him at one or two times - before his incarceration at KL, which is not likely because at that point she was, basically, nothing of interest, besides Viserys's pawn; or between leaving Harrenhal and arriving at Oldtown, which I don't think is near long enough to make the journey, become known to Dany and earn her trust, and return on a mission for her...

I'd lean towards using the same argument for his working for Euron. He'd have to have left Harrenhal, either travelled across the ravaged Riverlands and find a boat in Lannisport or Seagard that was willing to risk sailing to the Iron Isles (who were by this stage openly reaving again), murder Balon, find a ship off the isles, back to the mainland, and down to Oldtown to step into Pate's shoes. Unlikely, I feel.

Of these options, I think Jaqen's (if it is Jaqen) working for Varys and Illyrio the most likely.

[The Blackfish]

Originally Posted by Boaz

Cersei is not as wise as Dany, nor is she a sympathetic character. I'd say she's not going to win the Game.

Cersei does not even know that there is a game. Until her imprisonment she thought that she was in control and invincible. Her sad and amatuerish manipulations of Lady Falyse proved otherwise.

Originally Posted by Boaz

The other person with enough cash, enough ambition, and enough desire for secrets is Littlefinger. But without a Petyr POV, we really don't know much of what he's up to.

Of all the POV's, I have only ever been aware of Littlefinger explicitly mentioning the game of thrones. He seems to have a far greater understanding of the political (if not prophetic) elements of events than any other player, and builds plans with outcomes so far in the future that his current actions seem difficult to understand. For instance, how long has he been planning to restore Winterfell to Sansa (or a Stark in general?) Was it before or after he offered to become Lord Protector of the Vale? Are the armies of the Vale central to his plans or does he just use what comes to hand? Most of all, are his motivations based on his need to feel approved by Catelyn, even if she is now dead?

I just can't shake this feeling that Littlefinger is more important to the story than we yet know. He could yet tip the balance of power any way he chooses ...

[Boaz]

Iirc, Cersei mentions the Game to Ned, someone mentioned it to Arya, Catelyn thinks it, and Varys also talks of it. But then I might be misremembering... would not be the first time.

Baelish can't let Sansa go off and marry until she is completely under his spell. Part of this is addicting her to the drug, Game. Imo, he is pushing it on her hard and I think she'll like the feel of it.

[Cssndra]

No, Boaz, you are right. It's been mentioned by several characters throughout the novels.

[Boaz]

Originally Posted by Cssndra

Boaz, you are right.

This needs to be tagged onto everyone's signatures immediately!

<Dances around the room>

Cssndra is now my favorite person here.

Here's some more thoughts on AFFC:

What does Petyr Baelish see in Sansa? First, an ace in the hole. She is a valuable piece in the game and no one knows that he has her. Second, she looks like the love of his youth. Third, she is the daughter of Ned (the man who stole his love) and the niece of Brandon (the man who humiliated him). Every time he gets the chance, he wants to stick it to the Starks.

We did not get the Jon and Davos POVs, but there was no furor anywhere about the demise of one of the great houses. As far as anyone (besides Osha, Rickon, Bran, Meera, Jojen, Sam, and Hodor) knows, the Starks (presuming Benjen is dead) are extinct. The Stark family was the oldest in Westeros. They had the blood of the First Men. They were older than the Arryns, Lannisters, Tullys, and Tyrells (all Andals), older than the Martells (Rhoynish), and much older than the recently reformed Baratheons (Targaryen bastardization of an Andalish family). I'd really expect more of a feeding frenzy among the Tyrells and Lannisters... sure they promised the North to Roose Bolton, but would'nt some Southron lord try to plant himself in the Stark's place. And we saw nothing of any other Stark bannermen offering to take the Stark's place as overlord of the North. I can't imagine the Karstarks, Umbers, Manderlys, and Glovers just letting Roose Bolton pull this off.

All together now... "Boaz, you are right!"

[Culhwch]

I believe there is mention (possibly in Jon's sole chapter) that the Karstarks for one have gone over to Stannis. I figure all the Onion Knight by-play means that the Manderlys have as well. The Umbers and Glovers both have key figures in captivity (Frey has the Greatjon, Asha has Glover's wife and child) so they might be staying quiet either for lack of direction or in self-preservation. I think Bolton has a messy end coming, though. Roose Bolton and Walder Frey, tied together, made to watch their entire familes murdered (though Roose, I doubt, would care so much) and then tossed to drown together in the Red Fork... Nah, too good for 'em.

[The Blackfish]

Originally Posted by Boaz

What does Petyr Baelish see in Sansa? First, an ace in the hole. She is a valuable piece in the game and no one knows that he has her. Second, she looks like the love of his youth. Third, she is the daughter of Ned (the man who stole his love) and the niece of Brandon (the man who humiliated him). Every time he gets the chance, he wants to stick it to the Starks.

Sort of like a love-hate type thing then? She evokes equally sweet and painful memories? hmmmm interesting.

I could see this tipping LF right over the edge. All his well laid plans ruined because of his conflicting emotions ...

[Dolorous Edd]

Originally Posted by Culhwch

I believe there is mention (possibly in Jon's sole chapter) that the Karstarks for one have gone over to Stannis. I figure all the Onion Knight by-play means that the Manderlys have as well. The Umbers and Glovers both have key figures in captivity (Frey has the Greatjon, Asha has Glover's wife and child) so they might be staying quiet either for lack of direction or in self-preservation. I think Bolton has a messy end coming, though. Roose Bolton and Walder Frey, tied together, made to watch their entire familes murdered (though Roose, I doubt, would care so much) and then tossed to drown together in the Red Fork... Nah, too good for 'em.

It is mentioned in one of cersei's chapters i think that the umber's and some others (cant remeber who, the glover were one i think, and the flint's) were going to help bolton push the iron men out of moat cailin, so one of the greatjon's uncles at least appears to have made common cause with them. wheter that will hold i do not know.

As to what fate lies in store for boltons, my own theory/wish is a face of between jon and ramsay, the bastard of winterfell vs the bastard of bolton! How cool would that be? I can see it happening, as they obviously won't like the thought of a stark in charge of a thousand armed men, and he appears to have made common cause with stannis against the lannisters, so i can see them begin rainding against the watch.

[Cssndra]

And the question is, Blackfish, what will Sansa do when Petyr makes his inevitable play for her? Will she run or will she play him like a sweetly tuned harp?

(Boaz, you quite turn my head. Who indeed will hold the north?)

[ChasenFate]

Hopefully Sansa will remember her roots, learn a lot from Littlefinger and make him dance to her tune.

[Boaz]

If Sansa remembers her roots, she'll forget how to play the game... ie. she'll lose badly like her whole family did.

I think that Baelish knows that he is the master player and he'll think he can anticipate all of Sansa's moves regarding him. Sansa will have to become the Columbo of players to throw Baelish off the scent. If she can get him to completely underestimate her, then she might stand a chance, if not... he'll see her coming a mile away.

[ChasenFate]

Maybe the way she saw how she has been played by everyone, she can learn from her mistakes. Play Baelish and Cersei against each other some how.

[The Blackfish]

More likely I can see Littlefinger totally manipulating Sansa toward his own ends while making her think she is acting out of her own initiative.

Originally Posted by Boaz

If Sansa remembers her roots, she'll forget how to play the game... ie. she'll lose badly like her whole family did.

I agree Boaz, but do you think there is anyway for the Stark sense of honour and duty to be maintained and its adherents not lose? Or is it outdated and now unrelevant in the cut-throat game of thrones?

[asdar]

I wonder how important the game even is.

The Others and the long winter didn't get much press in AFFC but they're still coming.

I think Dany certainly has an edge. There are still a lot of common folk that fly the Targaryen banner in secret I think.

I think Sansa would have a good shot at pulling something out if it wasn't for Dany. The north is broken but so is the south. The Cersei trial and all weakens it further.