Egypt elections

[Nerds_feather]

i have a feeling mubarak's former right-hand-man is going to win. this article looks at some of the reasons why that might be. not all of the reasons, of course (the military controlling the state media is the elephant in the room), but it looks at why some regular people turned from the revolution and are now looking nostalgically at the old order.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middl...g-for-the-past

[Alien Dynasty]

I think that the best thing that we can hope for is a government run by a secularist but whose raw power is balanced by the Muslim Brotherhood. I'm very leery about the MB getting into power, but I also don't want a return to a statist Mubarak-style government.

[Nerds_feather]

Originally Posted by Alien Dynasty

I think that the best thing that we can hope for is a government run by a secularist but whose raw power is balanced by the Muslim Brotherhood. I'm very leery about the MB getting into power, but I also don't want a return to a statist Mubarak-style government.

it's a bad set of choices. read somewhere (i can't remember where), a supporter of the liberals in cairo describe the choice as "between an islamic fascist and a military fascist."

in terms of how their campaigning, the MB seems like they're trying to project a more mellow image and appeal to christians and liberal supporters of the revolution. i don't know enough about egypt to know how sincere that is, but i suspect it's partially a genuine move to become a mass party (which is what the mb clone in indonesia has been trying to do for years) and partially an election ploy.

can't say either of the choices are exactly inspiring.

[Clansman]

And now the Generals have altered the constitution to remove power from the President's office, reserving many major powers to the military.

Regardless of who wins, it will be a military junta that really controls things. I'd been hoping for a Turkish-style government, where the military guarantees the secular nature of the constitution, regardless of who gets elected.

[Bowler1]

This is all early days for Egypt and there is a long road ahead. Foreign investment and tourism needs to restart if the country is to get access to outside cash that can then be used to rebuild/build the country. What is good is the Muslim Brotherhood will be a power against re-instatement of the old order. Any other choices the Egyptians make will be for them to decide and if they move more toward a Muslim based government then that will be their choice. They would not be the first or last country to make that decision and not all these Muslim countries are against the West. The Egyptians live in interesting times with difficult choices ahead and we in the West need to recognise this and even accept decisions we may not like.

The recent Military tinkering with the constitution is a worrying development. But the military are currently operating in a vacuum as the new government has not taken over the running of the country, so these ploys by the military may not last the test of time.

Interesting article all the same, it just goes to show that forces against sudden change in Egypt have muscle as well – a good thing I think.

[Nerds_feather]

you're right in a lot of ways, bowler1. there are legitimate worries about the MB, though. first, what's going to happen to egypt's coptic christians? the MB is trying to project an image of inclusion and claim they would be better guarantors of minority rights than the military set were or would be.

IF that's true, then that would be a huge step forward for egypt. but while it's indeed possible, religious-oriented political parties don't have a great track record in this respect. not just islamic parties or islamic-oriented governments, but ones that officially associate themselves with hinduism, buddhism, eastern orthodox christianity, judaism, etc. as well. so i think concerns there are warranted, though one should also not just jump to the conclusion that the MB would automatically make things worse .

the second issue pertains to foreign policy, and the already volatile situation in the region. can't say that things in places like israel and the palestinian territories are especially good, but they certainly could get worse if more and more of the governments are run by people who believe they have a religious right to, and obligation to fight for, contested lands. something does need to change there, but a hardening of spirits in every direction is the last thing anyone needs. hopefully that's not where we end up.

[Bowler1]

I agree, NF, when people have different views and there is tension associated with these views, then sadly, positions tend to harden. Egypt as you say, NF, is at that tipping point. I do hope that the split/balance that has expressed it's self in the recent elections (very close to 50:50) will be just that, a healthy balance to keep the country ticking over. No country is ever perfect but I think Egypt could use a break, deserve a break, after all the country has recently gone through. To the best of my knowledge Egypt has no oil, in this case I think that is a good thing!

[Nerds_feather]

well this was unexpected. even if the presidency has little power, it's an important symbolic step.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/26/world/...gypt-politics/