A Dance With Dragons: Speculation?

[Ursa major]

Originally Posted by Ghost of Harrenhal

Wow... Now I really wonder how GRRM will play this.

One could assume that GRRM has also been wondering about that.

[IlliferThePenniless]

Mel's sort of an interesting case isn't she? While it does seem like she knows more then she's letting on she pretty much has to be very wrong about some things,reading fire's signs incorrectly. Or she's working for the other side. The business with Stannis' sword is very strange as it's hard to believe that his enchanted sword is really Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes, as it hasn't been tempered in any loved ones and doesn't give off any heat. Maester Aemon remarks as much when Stannis shows him the sword.

The more I think about that, the more that all bothers me. Mel has either totally fooled herself or she's playing a game I don't understand. What's the point of making someone believe they're AA reborn if you know they're not?

But she's one of the only extant characters who we can be pretty sure has read all the prophecies pertaining to what's going on. Who else is there? Marwyn maybe, but everyone else I can think of who would know seems to be dead. Am I missing anybody? She may very well be a vessel for GRRM to info dump on The Prince Who Was Promised and all that as I suspect we're moving into a story that's less about the political machinations of various players in Westeros and into a more 'fate of the world hinges on the outcome' sort of situation.

The story of the never ending battle between Rhallor and The Great Other has really only been told in hints and pieces thus far. I wonder if Mel's POV is going to change that, as well as singling a change in the focus of the series.

[Boaz]

Illifer, I'd not remembered (or else I never even gave any credence to) Dany's dream that you mentioned. Ummmm, it seems pretty cut and dried. Now I know that armies have fought successful delaying actions and armies have retreated by adopting a scorched earth policy while avoiding battle. The accounts of the Greeks in Anabasis, Rome's Fabian tactics, the Russian defence against Napoleon, Napoleon's retreat from Russia, Mao's Long March, and the North Afrika Korps' retreat are all examples of either a long strategic retreat or a defense against an unstoppable foe. Russia defeated Napoleon in large part due to not fighting and letting the elements themselves beat the French, but in trying to compare this to Westeros... don't the Others bring their own weather with them? The warmth of the south will be turned to cold... it will favor the invaders. I don't think Jon can adopt Fabian tactics south of the Wall, he does not have the strength to hole up somewhere... the Wall is his defense... it has magical properties to stop the Others. I don't think Jon can replicate Xenophon's retreat because he does not hold a significant advantage in training, morale, command, and technology like the Greeks did. Well, if all of the NW had dragonglass daggers and arrows, then they'd hold the tech edge and thus a morale edge, I think.

Also, in the above retreats none of the armies involved had to retreat the distance that Jon and NW will face in falling back to Moat Cailin, let alone marching all the way to the Trident. Looking at one of the recent maps that Werthead linked, I make it 1,200 miles from Castle Black to Moat Cailin... and another 800 miles to the Ruby Ford. In contrast, it's about 750 miles from Moscow to Warsaw... the Afrika Korps gave up around 1,500 miles in the eighteen months after El Alamein... And I don't see Jon keeping his force together over that distance with demons and undead creatures on their heels. I imagine it would be more like the British retreat from Kabul in 1841... one man, out of 12,000, survived to tell the tale.

Mayhaps the example to look at is the retreat of the Nez Perce in 1877. 800 men, women and children retreated 1,700 miles over three months with 2,000 U.S. Cavalry on their heels. The Nez Perce successfully defended themselves for a time, but were ultimately brought to bay by superior numbers and inclement weather.

I remember Coltaine's retreat in Deadhouse Gates and Hile Troy's retreat in The Illearth War as examples of major strategic retreats in fantasy.

I dunno... I just don't see Jon and the NW successfully making all the way back to the Trident. Mayhaps they'll fall back to White Harbor where Jon will find Rickon and thence to the Riverlands.

[IlliferThePenniless]

So do you see the series climaxing at the wall then? A big massive battle with an under-manned and out gunned Night's Watch barely holding the line until the Dany shows up with her three pets and starts a little bonfire?

I guess it never even occurred to me that wall would survive the series intact. As long as there's a massive magical wall the Others can't cross, they're not really that much of a threat to Westeros right? As long as the wall is standing our brave heroes can just retreat behind its icy embrace and smile while the Others snarl in frustration beow.

From a narrative perspective, doesn't it have to come down and force a confrontation? Somebody's going to blow the Horn of Winter or do something similarly stupid and then we're going to be in a world of hurt. (my money's on Melissandre, either in an attempt to find a dragon egg or because she's playing for the other side... but I guess it could be just about anybody).

The 13th Lord Commander of the Watch was an Other, corrupted by his beautiful queen, now Stannis and Mel are moving into their old castle. The Red Woman has built up Stannis as Azor Ahai and given him a magic sword that is almost certainly not what she claims it is. It just seems like there will be some bad juju going down at the wall, and it just seems that as long as the wall stands the Others threat is not that vital.

The very first thing thing we're introduced to in the series is north of the Wall, a party of rangers is killed by an Other. The pall of that has hung over the entire subsequent series. It's always seemed a tragedy, and a little ironic that so much blood has been spilt battling for the iron throne while the real menace was massing, unremarked, north of the wall. As Osha told Bran, 'they're marching the wrong way.'

I guess i've always just assumed that, at some point, the Others would arrive and smash to pieces everyone's plots and intrigues... forcing Westeros to band together (however uneasily) to face the menace that imperils everyone, Lannister, Stark, Tyrell, and Martell alike. For anything like that to happen The Wall has to come down.

Right?

[IlliferThePenniless]

I guess, what i'm trying (without much success) to express... is that the series thus far has sort of split neatly in my mind into supernatural and mundane worlds.

Thus far, we've seen much more of the mundane. We've seen the grim and gritty world where kings are poisoned and an ambush at wedding accomplishes something a dozen battles could not. The machinations and political backbiting of Kings Landing, the world where the Tyrell's swords make them a force to be reckoned with, the world where Petyr Baelish can unbalance one rival after another has felt very separate to me from the world where glass candles burn and Night's Watch faces down a nameless dread, where dragons fly and Daenerys the Unburnt visits the house of the undying. The world of the Maesters is a different palce then the world of the Pyromancers.

It seems to me though, that those two worlds are going to collide and Lord Littlefinger and his ilk will find that they live in a very different world then they think they do. And it's hard for me to see how those worlds can be forced to coexist without something forcing the issue. It sure feels like the Others are that something and for them to accomplish their task they're going to have to circumvent the wall somehow.

Or, I've just misunderstood the story I'm reading.

[Boaz]

Oh, I agree that the bulk of the story still revolves around the Game of Thrones. And you make good arguments for Stannis being corrupted and/or Melisandre betraying Stannis. We've discussed Mel before... If she thinks Stannis is AA reborn, then either she's severely delusional or stupid. We know she's not stupid and I doubt she's delusional... Selyse and her uncle might be delusional, but Melisandre seems sane to me. Since she's not delusional nor stupid, then she must know that Stannis is not AAR. If she knows he's not AAR, then what is she up to? Sabotage of the resistance against THE Other my guess.

I don't envision Littlefinger, the Tyrells, or the Lannisters taking the Others seriously until they see them with their own eyes. Hmmmm. I sense that you have practical experience in story construction and plot development... at least more than me. I'm just a loud mouthed armchair critic. Hmmmm. So what's next?

The Wall was raised to prevent the return of the Others. And now they're back. If the Wall falls and Dany chases the Others back to the North, what will prevent them from marching south next winter? The only solution to that is for TPTWP/AAR to kill THE Other. If that happens and the Wall has been torn down, what will Jon do? What becomes of the NW?

[IlliferThePenniless]

I think Brandon Stark starts building another wall. Just like his namesake.

And one more point in favor of my 'the wall's gotta come down' position: Chekov once wrote a friend One must not put a loaded rifle on the stage if no one is thinking of firing it." I don't think the idea of The Horn of Winter, a horn one blows to bring the wall a tumblin' down, ever gets introduced if someone's not going to blow it at some point. Mance found a big scary horn that he never blew. John found a much less impressive horn on the fist of the first men... somebody's gonna blwo that horn.

[Boaz]

Your logic has overwhelmed me. I confess that I don't have any more half baked ideas to serve up... the Wall must come down. So I say to George Martin (with apologies to Mr. Reagan), "Best Selling Author Martin, if you seek plausibility, if you seek continuity for your epic story, if you seek believability: Come here to this gate! Mr. Martin, open this gate! Mr. Martin, tear down this Wall!"

[Eulalia]

lol. That wall is coming down. Maybe there will be a cracks of doom scenario.

Do you think the dragons could breathe on one of the derelict rock castles and make dragonglass for all?

[IlliferThePenniless]

And now I feel as though I've bullied you. Who knows, maybe we'll be able to add The Wall coming down to my longish list of places I thought the story was headed that I was totally wrong about.

Some of my favorites:
*Robb and Gendry riding into battle together like their fathers before them, with Sandor close behind striking down Lannisters left and right.
*Nymeria coming out of nowhere to rip out a few throats in defense of Arya at some point when she was riding around the River Lands.
*A really kick ass alliance between Stark and Greyjoy that decimated the Lannister's from land and sea. I envisioned some scene where things looked dire for Robb when, out in the distance (probably with the sun rising behind them) came the longships sailing to the rescue (in my defense, this dream didn't last very long).
*Sansa doing something useful (this could, I suppose, still come to pass).
*I still have a recurring dream of a massive knight in nondescript armor riding into battle accompanied by a monstrous green eyed wolf and killing everyone in his path, giving no quarter and, just slaughtering the enemy. Sadly I don't see anyway for Rickon to get old enough by the end of the to series to really be a player.

I'd love to hear everybody else's misguided notions about where GRRM was taking us.

[Ursa major]

You should start a thread on this topic, O Cents-less One. ()


But perhaps wait for the old GRRM-sub-forum hands to list the threads that already cover this territory. (I'm not one of them, as if you haven't guessed that already.)

[Boaz]

Ursa, he has at least two. He keeps dropping them on me.

Bullying me? No, it's not you... it's my old nemesis, Logic. He and I have been at odds forever.

Yeah, TK is really good about saying, "You don't need to see this post. This is not the thread you're looking for. You can go about your posting." Now if you want to start a thread regarding "I thought Eddard was going to die of old age" or "How did Martin's plot fool you?", then by all means start one.

[TK-421]

WTF are we going with this?

The thread has played tricks with this weak mind.

[Boaz]

And your avatar has played tricks with my weak will.

[IlliferThePenniless]

I'm duly chastened for going off topic. I will endeavor to do be more disciplined in the future.