The Carrington Event

[Anthony G Williams]

If global warming plus the possibility of a major asteroid strike aren't enough to worry about, there's another threat to our civilisation reported in the New Scientist magazine of 23rd March 2009. No doubt some SF writers and film-makers are beavering away at disaster stories based on this already – or maybe this one is a bit too grim.

It concerns storms on the surface of the sun which throw out plasma balls, a process known as coronal mass ejection (CME). These fly through space at high velocity and occasionally connect with the Earth. They vary a lot in size and small ones are common, but if a giant one hits the Earth, we are in trouble deep. This is no idle threat; the outcome of such a major geomagnetic storm is described in a report funded by NASA and issued by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in January 2009. Furthermore, such an event has already happened, in 1859, as reported by the British astronomer Richard Carrington. This caused stunning auroras even at equatorial latitudes and severely disrupted telegraph networks. The consequences of an event on a similar scale today would be far worse.

Our problem is that in the 150 years since the Carrington event we have become much more vulnerable to its effects. Satellite communication and navigation systems in the CME's path would be fried. Much worse, the long cable lines of our electricity grids would act as aerials, capturing the plasma and focusing it on the transformers which convert the high-voltage grid supply to lower voltage domestic supplies. The massive flow of DC current would overheat and melt the transformers' copper wiring, effectively destroying them. Power supplies in the area hit by the plasma ball would fail. A small-scale version of this happened in Quebec province in March 1989, and six million people were without electricity for nine hours. A strike the size of the Carrington event would be orders of magnitude worse.

The NAS report outlines the consequences if a Carrington event hit the USA. Within 90 seconds, 300 key transformers would be knocked out, cutting off power to 130 million people. All kinds of electronic communications would fail. Within a few hours, water taps would run dry as there would be no power to pump the supply. All electrically-powered transport would grind to a halt. So would petrol and diesel vehicles as their tanks ran dry, because there would be no power to pump fuel at the filling stations. With no transport, supplies of food in urban areas would rapidly run out; typically, cities only have about three days' supply of food (and much of that is in freezers or refrigerators, so would soon spoil). Even establishments with backup generators, such as hospitals, could only keep going for as long as their fuel lasted – probably three days. Medicines would soon begin to run out, as the factories would have no power to make them and the vehicles no fuel to transport them.

Worst of all, it would take a very long time to put matters right. The wrecked transformers would have to be replaced, a job which takes a skilled crew at least a week for each one – assuming they have a spare one handy. There are very few spare ones lying around; they are usually made to order, a process which can take a year. And the factories which can make them will probably have no power – or, if they are outside the affected zone, problems in transporting them to where they're needed. Even with the transformers repaired, there would be a kind of Catch-22 because almost all the natural gas and fuel pipelines which supply power stations require electricity to operate. No electricity = no fuel = no electricity. Coal fired power stations may have 30 days of fuel, but nuclear ones would automatically shut down when the grid fails.

Given the difficulties and delays in responding to and recovering from Hurricane Katrina, an event which affected only a very small percentage of the USA, it is easy to see that rescue and recovery services would be completely overwhelmed by a national disaster on such a scale. The net result of all this, according to the NAS report, is that the recovery time would be four to ten years – and the USA may never be the same again. The New Scientist article quotes an estimate of the death toll of "tens of millions of lives". The rest of the developed world is just as vulnerable to a major geomagnetic storm as the USA. Ironically, it is the poorest and most rural societies which would be least affected.

Can anything be done to guard against this? Precautions to protect the grid could be taken given enough warning, such as adjusting voltages and loads and restricting energy transfers. However, this process takes at least 15 minutes – which is about as long as it can take for a CME to reach Earth from the nearest existing solar satellite. Fortunately, a follow-up report in the 11th April issue of the New Scientist describes a new technique for predicting CMEs using NASA's STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) pair of spacecraft which follow the same orbit as the Earth. A check following a small CME event of 16 December 2008 discovered that STEREO spotted changes to the sun which presaged the event. Given some improvements to the software to speed up data analysis, up to 24 hours warning could be provided of a CME about to head our way.

Let's hope that someone is working on that software and setting up a system for automatic warnings to be sent to power grid organisations worldwide, and that those organisations are compelled to put in place and rehearse the precautionary procedures. This can be done quite easily and cheaply, and the consequences of failing to do so could be catastrophic.

(An extract from my SFF blog)

[skeptical]

Roger Zelazny wrote a scifi fictional novel about an event similar to this, called 'Flare'.

[Ursa major]

A novel based on this would have to focus on the consequences, such as how a person/people, a family/families, a community/communities cope with the catastrophe. The CME itself is merely an event (with a short lead-in time), the starting point for what follows. Cue "once the world we know has ended" tales.


By the way, I haven't read the Zelazny, but Wiki describes thus:

The book takes a scientific approach to the idea, including almost no tangible story line. It is broken into short segments which describe different people in various places suffering from the effects of the solar flare.

[Nik]

IIRC, power utilities have been installing protective breakers and ground-loop interrupters against this eventuality...

Um, I think there was a mini-series or movie on SciFi channel a couple of months back with a similar scenario. Given a little warning, cities disconnected their feed, took the consequences of a brief, *predictable* black-out rather than a longer, unpredictable knock-out...

One intereresting 'gotcha' goes back to 'Ring of Fire', where their few mobile phones stopped working because local mast(s) lost the billing link. I must wonder if our modern cell-systems include any provision for local operation...

[Anthony G Williams]

Originally Posted by Nik

IIRC, power utilities have been installing protective breakers and ground-loop interrupters against this eventuality...

The alarm raised in the NAS report suggests that the majority do not do this.

I suspect that private power distribution companies, which are in it for profit and spend only what they have to, will generally not do this unless they are forced to.

[Happy Joe]

Just another reason not to become too technologically dependent, as individuals.
Isn't it the Mormons that advocate maintaining a 5 year supply of food as a hedge against disaster?

I, personally, like both tech toys and antiques, with the result bing that if the power fails; I simply light an oil lamp, drag out the camping equipment and cook supper, then sit down with a good book.

Enjoy!

[Drachir]

Originally Posted by Happy Joe

Just another reason not to become too technologically dependent, as individuals.
Isn't it the Mormons that advocate maintaining a 5 year supply of food as a hedge against disaster?


Enjoy!

That's true, but the Mormons also think the Earth is only 6000 years old, and that Aboriginal Americans are the lost tribe of Israel, and that you can buy the dead out of Hell.

[Parson]

lt's not? They aren't? You can't!

[Anthony G Williams]

Originally Posted by Happy Joe

I, personally, like both tech toys and antiques, with the result bing that if the power fails; I simply light an oil lamp, drag out the camping equipment and cook supper, then sit down with a good book.

The only problem is that the length of string with a tin can at each end isn't a very satisfactory substitute for broadband...

[ktabic]

Originally Posted by Anthony G Williams

The only problem is that the length of string with a tin can at each end isn't a very satisfactory substitute for broadband...

I'm sometimes convinced that my bb connection is a piece of string and two tin cans.

Originally Posted by Happy Joe

I, personally, like both tech toys and antiques, with the result bing that if the power fails; I simply light an oil lamp, drag out the camping equipment and cook supper, then sit down with a good book.

I'm quite amazed that most people I know don't seem to have candles available to them. Should a major power outage hits, they are going to be so bored without TVs, DVDs and consoles.

[Granfalloon]

There was a movie whose story was along these lines recently called "Knowing." It was interesting and even intriguing, but like many Hollywood productions IMO finally "went over the top". (I said it that way so it wouldn't spoil it completely).

So Anthony - Were you just suggesting this as a possible basis for a SF story, or were you taking the alarmist approach and telling us all to get ready for "The End." ?

Where is TEIN when you need him?

[Anthony G Williams]

Originally Posted by Granfalloon

So Anthony - Were you just suggesting this as a possible basis for a SF story, or were you taking the alarmist approach and telling us all to get ready for "The End." ?

It obviously has SFnal possibilities (and similar issues have been covered by some authors already) but it was more to alert people to the possibility of catastrophe - which can, as I say, be easily countered. I just hope that people are onto the case.

[Ursa major]

Originally Posted by Granfalloon

Where is TEIN when you need him?

He'll be here eventually.

[Granfalloon]

Originally Posted by Granfalloon
Where is TEIN when you need him?

He'll be here eventually.

But what if the world ends before he shows up?!!!!

(TEINLN)