Football (american football to those across the pond!)

[Parson]

Originally Posted by J-Sun

Point of order - how do we decide what's closest? Difference between winner and loser prediction? (10-7 prediction with 14-10 score is 7 off? Is 10-14 still 7 off despite having picked the wrong teams?) Closest to spread? Closest total points?

Either way, while a one game "split" doesn't make much sense, here's it is. 6-1 NE.

PICKER  WINNER  LOSER       SPREAD  TOTAL
------  ------  ------      ------  -----
jo      NE 34 - NYG 30      4       64
j       NE 35 - NYG 28      7       63
ursa    NE 34 - NYG 27      7       61
ws      NE 30 - NYG 24      6       54
grim    NE 36 - NYG 17      19      53
pars    NE 24 - NYG 21      3       45

cul     NYG 24 - NE 17      7       41

The average prediction is NE 30 - NYG 24, which is exactly WS's pick.

How was I supposed to know that there were so many ways of doing it?! I would suggest that we go that the best guess must pick the right team, and then the one closest to the winning score for the victorious team wins, with total points being a tie breaker.

[J-Sun]

Originally Posted by Parson

How was I supposed to know that there were so many ways of doing it?! I would suggest that we go that the best guess must pick the right team, and then the one closest to the winning score for the victorious team wins, with total points being a tie breaker.

Anything's fine with me, I guess, as long as everybody's on the same page. -- Actually, I'm tempted to change my pick to NE 37-NY 28, then - odds of the score landing exactly on 35 are less than them simply exceeding 36, which would give Grimm 36-infinity as a range to win in and at least give you 2-23 (assuming NE wins, of course).

Cul - on that last point, you'll be pleased to know (if you don't already) that someone as objective as Chris Canty has almost exactly agreed with you, predicting NYG 28-NE 17. A few hours from now we can find out if we can start calling him Joe Willie Canty.

[alchemist]

Now, THAT was enjoyable!

[Culhwch]

Man, so close with the score!

That was a pretty good game, I must say. I think the Giants truly were the more convincing team on the day, though they did get a couple of lucky bounces that helped them. The Pats had no right to be in th game at halftime, let alone have the lead.

That final TD was bizarre. I don't know that I could ever be in favour of letting a team walk in. I'd rather hold onto that lead, because anything can happen - a forced fumble, a pick, a blocked field goal. Going behind and then banking on scoring a TD on an eighty-yard, fifty-second drive just doesn't seem logical at all. It looked like Bradshaw might have been told to kneel at the goal line, too, and I'm glad he didn't - take the points, every time, because as above you never know what could happen - and I'm glad that it didn't come back to haunt him with a Pats score...

Oh well, that's it, I guess. When's the draft?

[Parson]

I think it was the Pats' only realistic chance to let NYG walk in. I will also say that I was really rooting for the Pats to score and it would have made me the absolute Super Bowl winner. But the better team today definitely won. I guess this about disproves all of that foolishness about the regular season being meaningful, or home field, and all that other well thought of nonsense.

Congrats Cul! well played. You are now crowned Play off Champion and Grand Poobah of the Chrons football pickers.

[Culhwch]

One adage was proved somewhat correct - the (slightly) better defense won the championship!

[Winters_Sorrow]

Congratulations Cul, I'm glad to have been proved wrong with the Pats; though I have to say the entire match was a nail-biter from beginning to end. I don't think I've seen a Superbowl as keenly contested across the board.

As much as New York's defence was the better at times, for most of the game they couldn't get near Brady and the Pats defence did what it did all season, stiffen up as it enters the red zone and restrict the Giants to only a few scores. Unfortunately for them, Tom Brady couldn't do what he usually does and stick TDs on the other side. Hernandez had a great game, abusing Boley in the middle of the park and but for a healthy Gronk who knows eh?

The Giants had a few lucky breaks (3 fumbles, 1 negated by penalty and 2 recovered?) but kudos to them, I'm happier with the result ending as it did. At the rate they're winning Superbowls, I wonder if it's too late to expect Rob & Eddard Stark to make a miraculous recovery? "Hmm? Oh it wasn't them. Body doubles...y'know, like Saddam"

I can't help but fancy the Niner's chances now though. Man, I wish we'd been there!

Oh and some reporter wag was heard to comment (not to Belichicks face of course!) that's pre-Spygate SBs +3, post-Spygate SB's -2...

[Ursa major]

I hate to have to type this, but the Giants deserved to win. Apart from the drives either side of half-time, the Patriots just didn't look as if they were in the game. Yes, their defence kept the score down, and there were occasional good offensive moves, but they didn't seem at all convinced of their own chances. The Giants, by contrast, did look as if they believed in themselves. And by doing so, they became right to do so.


By the way.... Because the of the late hour, I switched off immediately after the final whistle, so didn't catch any of the post-match analyses. But I did wonder about one thing, namely the twelve-men-on-the-field business, and not just because I don't recall seeing it happen three times in a game. I'm thinking in particular of the last time it occurred. I'm not going to claim that it was deliberate - I don't believe it was - but the Giants gained** (in terms of time off the clock) by committing that foul, which doesn't really seem right.



** - I don't think this affected the result of the game. Even with those seconds, the Patriots simply wouldn't have had enough time to do anything but launch a hail Mary, which they did anyway, and which, almost by definition, is desperation in action.

[J-Sun]

Apparently I'm the only one who thought it sucked. Brady couldn't throw most of the game. When he could, his receivers couldn't catch. The Patriots couldn't run. The defense, after a couple of sacks, faded into a slight obstruction. Special teams was nothing. The Patriots committed several boneheaded penalties, including the offense starting with a safety! Bellichick and the team learned nothing from the previous games and didn't successfully adjust in this one. A completely disastrous performance on their part. And they were winning at halftime and almost won the whole game which says all it needs to about the Giants.

I'm amazed that all the offensive lovers weren't bored senseless until the end of the game where, granted, it was close, so provides a sort of automatic interest. And defensive lovers like me, after watching Baltimore and San Francisco fall by the wayside certainly had little to enjoy. The Giants fumbled three times and the Patriots got none of them. There was a boneheaded pick or two courtesy the QB. A couple-three sacks combined. A beautiful form tackle by, I think, Patriots #24 and then the same player made an idiotic failed "bumple" that led to a 20 yard run or so.

And, for a record 9th consecutive year, the MVP goes to a quarterback or wide receiver (and for a tied-for-record 9th year it went to an offensive player but that streak at least had running backs).

Oh, and re: the letting the Giants score, I was screaming for just that for a solid minute before they finally did it. As soon as the Giants got into even realistic field goal range, the game was essentially over without a lucky miss. The Patriots did not have time to stop the Giants so could only hold them to a field goal with virtually no time on the clock, and so would lose. Their only choice was to let the Giants score immediately or pray for a missed field goal. Instead, they waffled and fell between the stools, ultimately letting the Giants score anyway* but without enough time to calmly get anything accomplished for themselves. And then the Patriots receivers all greased up their hands before taking the field for the final drive, anyway.

And think back - only take that 2-point safety away and the Patriots would not have had to let them score because the field goal wouldn't have given the Giants the lead. The Giants would have needed a touchdown to win which would have been a very different situation. (I say again, would have been down a full field goal to a team playing as badly as the Patriots.)

In extra-game senses, though, it wasn't all bad. As someone mentioned before the game, it's funny that "the other" Manning now has more rings (and MVPs) than Peyton. And, WS, that's an excellent and interesting point about post-Spygate Bellichick. And, if it had been anyone but the Giants (or Eagles) I'd have switched who I was rooting for anyway. I don't really know Tiquan Underwood but Bellichick needs a punch in the nose. I guess this second Super Bowl failure to a mediocre Giants team is just sort of karma. You gotta feel for Underwood.

I think I'm going to watch more college football next year and no NFL. Find some team that runs out of the I and has a good defense.

* Anyone who says Bradshaw didn't potentially throw his team under a bus because he wanted the touchdown is mistaken - anyone who can't successfully take a knee can't successfully run for a touchdown either - he was told to take a knee and tried to make it look like he tried to take a knee so his coach wouldn't kill him if it turned out wrong but he scored on purpose, banking that the Patriots wouldn't score and the history books would say "Super Bowl winning touchdown scored by me!"

[Culhwch]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...tball-is-dead/

I found this blog post quite interesting, particularly in terms of player safety and head injuries specifically. This issue has steadily been picking up momentum, and it does seem like something that could threaten the league's existence, or at the very least lead to dramatic changes in the way the game is played.

The statistic quoted contrasting NFL and AFL players was something that stood out to me. I don't watch a lot of AFL, although as an Australian I am more than familiar with the game, and it is fast and violent, and impacts are often spectacular. My first love is rugby league, and I think as a game it's more comparable to the NFL in terms of the mechanics of running the ball (hitting it up in our parlance) and tackling the ball carrier. I've long been of the opinion, based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence, that professional league players wearing no protection (usually - some do wear soft protective headgear) were far less likely to sustain a head injury than a helmeted professional NFL player. To see the actual statistics comparing AFL and NFL players, with the NFL players 25% more likely to sustain a head injury, goes a long way to confirming my suspicions.

It mentions in the article that the introduction of helmets led players to feel safer, and to start using the helmet as a weapon. I can't imagine in today's climate any player is feeling 'safer' wearing a helmet, but they continue to be used as a weapon. What lies ahead is an interesting time for the game. I can't see a step away from helmets, although it would be an intriguing move if it eventuated. So much of the mystique of the game, I feel, revolves around the aesthetics of the pads and helmets. It's unlike almost any other sport - although I guess ice hockey comes close. Helmetless football wouldn't look much like football at all. But would the product change? I could see the game becoming quicker, actually, and no less physical. But, as I said, I doubt it will ever happen - total demise seems more likely...

[jojajihisc]

So the NFL is investigating the Saints for running a "bounty" program where they paid players bonuses for big hits on opposing teams' players. Without bogging down into if this was wrong or not there are a couple questions I have about the alleged rule breaking generally. First, who was actually paying these players? Greg Williams? Sean Payton? I doubt it. Punish whomever is actually paying them the hardest. And if it is agreed the owners/executives are to blame here then what does Roger Goodell do when that is who he answers to (and right after getting a massive raise in pay)? And what about these kinds of under-the-table incentives as a means to circumvent the salary cap?

[Culhwch]

As you can imagine, I've been fairly well across this story so far. It's dissappointing to say the very least, and a real hit to the Saints organisation as a whole.

My understanding is that primarily the money came from a pool of players, but was added to and administered by Gregg Williams and at least one other assistant coach. Reports out of Buffalo are that Williams gave bonuses on the sly from his own pocket as head coach there, and it seems that the same happened in Washington during his tenure as d-coordinator, and possibly Tennessee as well. I think one thing is for certain - Williams is in a lot of trouble.

As far as the Saints are concerned - there are reports that both Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton knew this was happening. Loomis was directed by owner Tom Benson to put a stop to it when Benson was informed by the league office that it was happening, and Loomis didn't. I think Loomis gets shown the door. Payton is safe because, I imagine, firstly it's not his side of the ball (though as head coach he should be ultimately responsible) but more importantly he's a top five coach and you don't get rid of them so hastily - see Belichick/Spygate.

Jonathan Vilma supposedly put ten grand on Brett Favre's head, so I think a fine, suspension and dismissal will be waiting for him if that charge is proven. The other '22-27' players will face fines and suspensions if found guilty. Draft picks will be relinquished, and the team will be fined as well. So much for a hometown Superbowl appearance this year.

General reaction from other players seems to be mixed, but a lot have just shrugged it off as a regular practice. Neither Favre nor Warner - two of the alleged targets - seemed surprised or dismayed. That's not to say it's not a terrible practice and should go unpunished. But I think the thing the Saints players and coaches have been dinged for here is being too organised about it, and getting caught. You can't tell me that players like James Harrison and Ndamakong Suh don't step onto the field every Sunday with injurous intent on their minds. Every single defensive player wants to put the opposing QB out of the game, especially when it's someone like Favre or Warner. hat's not the way it should be, but I believe that it is the way it is....

[J-Sun]

First I've heard of it (kinda out of sports touch these days), so thanks for bringing it up.

I think Sando's article puts his finger on a big part of the root of it. The Rams should be a lot of fun with Fisher and Williams. I disagree about Sando's point about on-field accomplishment, though. Being especially motivated by money to especially hurt people, rather than executing with skill and effectiveness in order to win games, does at least taint any on-field accomplishment and certainly taints it in the sense that no official threw a flag on the money passing hands or threw an extra flag because any injury from a vicious hit wasn't accident or overzealousness but from calculated maliciousness.

Sorry, Cul - not your fault, of course - but I imagine that must affect you worse than the Cowboys hiring a Ryan (speaking of a lineage of bounties) as a coach affected me. I agree that Payton's unlikely to pay more than a fine - though whoever Ashley Fox is is unrealistically prognosticating a dismissal. It would certainly be correct, but I'll believe it when I see it.

[Culhwch]

If they fire Payton, then so be it. I don't see it happening, but if it did I wouldn't shed any tears. The man is an excellent head coach and an exceptional offensive mind, but I think he is also arrogant and to some degree carries himself like he is above reproach. I have little doubt he knew about this, and I can't imagine he ever thought it should be something that should be stopped.

The reality is, this gives the franchise a black eye that we won't recover from until there is a fairly complete turnover of players (at least on the defensive side of the ball), coaches and the GM and any of his staff that are implicated. Now we'll have to sit at the table with the reviled franchises like the Pats and the Steelers, and I honestly never thought that would happen.

I feel sorry for Steve Spagnuolo. Part of me is thankful that this broke after he signed his contract, because I doubt he'd have come over with all this bad press. Still, he has now inherited a defense with a bad rep that was already light on talent, and now the team will lose draft picks and find it hard to sign quality free agents.

[Winters_Sorrow]

It's certainly an odd story. I can see them getting hammered more for the organised nature of it - and because it's gambling essentially and that's a no-no outside of Atlantic City, Las Vegas and Indian Reservations no matter how impractical that law is...

But although Gregg Williams took it to the nth degree, it sounds like a fairly common practice in many teams around the league, though predominantly on defense. Though it might explain the Pats running up the score on teams if Brady was on a bounty for TDs!

I think Williams is probably in serious trouble - massive fines and possible dismissal not out of the question, Loomis is gone, the Saints will be fined and Peyton will get slapped on the wrist and warned on future conduct but that's it.

Vilma can consider himself lucky that Favre is fairly placid about the whole thing as his direct involvement in basically bribing players to injure another player is very litigious. As other players get 'named & shamed' I think the opportunties for civil suits against those players is a real possibility. Especially if they did knock a player out and he got a concussion. Considering the concussion lawsuits already floating around the league that could send the defendant into real penury. Gregg Williams may well get named in civil suits as a co-defendant so this story is just going to run & run with plenty of media coverage and frenzy whipping as it does so.