Football (american football to those across the pond!)

[Ursa major]

I simply can't suggest a Giants win, points or no points. How could I ever wish that they succeed in getting to the Super Bowl**?

So the predictions:

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

New York Giants @ San Francisco Forty-Niners



** - Especially when I believe that their win at Dallas wasn't right, not because the Cowboys particularly deserved to win, but because the Giants were awarded that dubious "the ball crossed the plane earlier in the play" touchdown. Without that, would they have been in playoffs? (Okay, they might have been, but I'm not so clear on the rules for winning a division that I can be sure either way.)

[Starchaser3000]

The Giants were able to sweep the Cowboys this year because their secondary was terrible. Its kind of pathetic when an offense lines up in a three wide receiver set against 7 pass defenders and the QB easily connects on a wide open pass/catch routinely.

[Parson]

Originally Posted by Winters_Sorrow

Well that's why the escalating points are there. Still all to play for, but you'll probably have to start taking risks if you're very far behind as the number of games are much less.

BAL @ NE -
NYG @ SF -

This is one week where I hope both my picks are wrong

Since I'm going for the win, I'll have to pick against wisdom and Writer's Sorrow.

So

BAL @ NE
NYG @ SF


Actually I don't think either pick is all that unlikely. I give NE only the slightest of edges because they are playing at home. Just like the Packers their defense is very suspect, and just like the Giants they have enough defense to give NE fits.

San Francisco is more of a reach. I'm still unconvinced with their offense and presently the NYG defense is as good as anyone's. But SF is at home and if they can turn NYG over a 2 more times than they turn it over I think the 49er's win.

I hope both of picks are right!

[J-Sun]

Question: is anybody rooting for either New York or New England? Most people have picked them but if anybody's happy about it, I missed it.

[jojajihisc]

Originally Posted by J-Sun

Question: is anybody rooting for either New York or New England? Most people have picked them but if anybody's happy about it, I missed it.

New England, but not New York.

I didn't used to like the Patriots during their really dominant years but I have to admire Tom Brady's hunger to win another championship. With all he's accomplished it would be so easy to get complacent but he isn't. And that double tight end attack is my absolute favorite thing in the NFL to watch right now.

What a shame two of the more entertaining teams going home and both for the same reason - turnovers. I'd like to see how many teams have ever won a game when they turned the ball over five times like the Saints did. Too much damage too early in the first half to overcome, even though they nearly did. The Packers peaked at the wrong time of year and the Giants are doing it at the perfect time.

[Culhwch]

I'm kind of neutral on both, rather than against either of them. I have a good deal of respect for both teams, and it honestly won't bother me if that's the Superbowl matchup. In that instance, as an NFC guy, I'll be supporting the Giants. Might be my New Orleans bias, but I kind of feel for Eli. Always in the shadow of his brother and always seems to have detractors lining up to take shots, despite having already won one ring and stepping up in a huge way this year. I also think it's be funny if the 'lesser' of the Manning boys retired with more championships than the great Peyton...

[J-Sun]

Okay, so it's not unanimous, at least.

BTW, I meant to mention this but forgot - I don't know how New York keeps doing this to people. The GB/NY game reminded me of the playoff game between Dallas and NY after the 2007 season (in which Dallas beat NY twice in the regular season while GB beat NY once in the 2011 regular season). GB brought no intensity to the game and seemed to never even realize they were losing and needed to do something about it until near the end, way too late. In fact, there's more general similarities to the 2007 Cowboys and the 2011 Packers in that I think both teams just assumed the Lombardi trophy would be handed to them. As did most others - believing their own press clippings and all. Even worse for GB because they'd actually won a Super Bowl vs. Dallas' more purely press-related nonsense.

SF may yet lose but I don't think they at all have the same sense of entitlement so, if they do, it won't be for lack of trying.

But, of course, the other thing the 2011 Giants make you think of is the same 2007 Giants. I agree that the only good point of that possibility is the comedy of the Mannings.

[J-Sun]

The Colts had already fired the management. Now they've finally fired the coach. I guess Manning will be the next to go. Seems kind of amazing to seriously contemplate but it really doesn't seem unlikely. (Not unlikely that they'll keep him, too, but just sayin'...)

[jojajihisc]

I think they have to trade him while he still has some worth (and who knows about that even with the neck issues). Hopefully they'd get quite a bit for him and then commit to Luck and don't look back.

BAL vs. NE
NYG vs. SF

[Culhwch]

But his cap hit is going to be huge, and won't any team trading for him need to pick that up? I don't know, I'd be annoyed if my team rolled that dice. The team I keep hearing is the Jets, and that may make some sense, if they think Sanchez can still pan out in the long-term. If not they are better off keeping their picks, getting a short-term vet like Henne or Orton, and drafting a promising QB this year to develop.

Although the Colts may just need to wait until Carson Palmer goes down in week six or seven, and Oakland may throw the house at them. Oh, wait, Hue Jackson is gone now...

[J-Sun]

Yeah, I wasn't sure about the finances but I was pretty sure it would involve cutting Manning rather than trading him, as crazy as that sounds - glancing at this article seems to confirm that.

Grim still hasn't picked but he can't change the nature of the splits, only mute or emphasize them, as NE is a 4-2 favorite over BAL and SF is a 4-2 favorite over NY, the last of which surprises me a little.

Split:
cul & jo & ursa & ws: BAL @ wNE
j & pars: wBAL @ NE

j & jo & pars & ursa: NYG @ wSF
cul & ws: wNYG @ SF

[jojajihisc]

Yes, it would have to be paid by the new team (around $28,000,000 it seems). There are teams that'll have that kind of space but the only one that really needs an improvement at QB badly is the Jacksonville Jaguars and it's hard to picture Manning going anywhere that isn't a playoff team. If he does go to the Jets I don't think Sanchez will be a Jet any longer. It's going to be interesting.

[J-Sun]

Originally Posted by jojajihisc

Yes, it would have to be paid by the new team (around $28,000,000 it seems).

Well, no, the bonus deadline seems to fall before the trading season opens.

Originally Posted by jojajihisc

There are teams that'll have that kind of space but the only one that really needs an improvement at QB badly is the Jacksonville Jaguars and it's hard to picture Manning going anywhere that isn't a playoff team. If he does go to the Jets I don't think Sanchez will be a Jet any longer. It's going to be interesting.

Well, it's possible Sanchez wouldn't be a Jet much longer anyway, despite the reassuring noises coming from the Jets. But would the Jets want to do a sort of Favre II? Eli would like them to but I don't know.

[Culhwch]

A move to the Jags would be interesting - staying inside the division. They don't have a terrible defense, and if healthy he could turn that offense around. Plus two games versus Andrew Luck. Big if on the health.

I was thinking about it some more and one other destination jumps out - Washington. They need a QB, it's the kind of splashy move Snyder likes to make, and it would pit the Mannings against each other twice a year. That'd be a story.

[jojajihisc]

Originally Posted by J-Sun

Well, no, the bonus deadline seems to fall before the trading season opens.

I see. Didn't read the article before I posted. All I know is if I was the one making the decision for the Colts I'd do what I have to to secure Luck (that part's easy) and owe as little to Manning as possible (maybe not so easy). He certainly was vital to that organization's success and this season underscores that fact but it's also a time to rebuild and that is best done with a young, very promising QB.