Football (american football to those across the pond!)

[Culhwch]

Can't wait for the match up next week. The Niners defense will be test for sure, but the Saints defense, I think, is good enough to restrict the Niners to under twenty. The saints running game is underrated as well. Thing that scares me is Sean Payton's propensity to forget that at inoppotune times.

Denver is giving Pittsburgh some trouble as we speak. Tebow has almost looked like a QB on some throws. Denver defense might just be good enough to hold them for the rest of this one.

[Winters_Sorrow]

You know, I hope the Niners do manage an upset (obviously) for no other reason that the three 4th downs Sean Payton went for really got up my nose. There's a fine line between confidence & arrogance and the Saints seem to delight in running up the score. So I hope their hubris bites them next week

[jojajihisc]

I like the coaches that are aggressive on 4th down. I remember seeing this statistical analysis study about going for it on 4th down and it said teams should be trying much more often. I've always thought conservative play can kill a team as much as aggressiveness can (learned during the Holmgren years). And when they do go for it they ought to keep the defense spread out instead of these tight one-dimensional formations which don't fool anyone. The Falcons made this mistake today when they did this bizarre line shift and Ryan took the snap from the right guard and tried to sneak it but was stopped short. What is Michael Turner there for if not to pick up an important yard when you really need it?

[Parson]

For a certain Parson this round was a catastrophe. But Winter's Sorrow and Grim both went 3 and 1. We were all Tiebowed.

standings:

WrSr --- 3-1 (3 pts.)
Grim --- 3-1 (3 pts.)
Culh --- 2-2 (2 pts.)
Joja --- 2-2 (2 pts.)
Jsun --- 2-2 (2 pts.)
Ursa --- 2-2 (2 pts.)
Pars --- 1-3 (1 pts.)

----

Here's the next round. Remember each right pick is worth 2 points in this round.

Den @ NE
NO @ SF
Hou @ Bal
NYG @ GB

[J-Sun]

Den @ NE
NO @ SF
Hou @ Bal
NYG @ GB

[Winters_Sorrow]

Another overlooked piece of trivia was that all the home teams won!
Home advantage is usually just assumed to help dome teams but I think there were also several generous pieces of officiating as well. I watched all 4 games and in at least 2 of them (Saints & Steelers since no-one asked) there were dubious calls including the wonderful "Let's blow the whistle and deny fumble returns for TDs" calls. I don't know if referees watch other games or not but this happened on Saturday and then again on Sunday. You think at least one time the refs wouldn't be so hasty.
At least the first time it "only" denied a TD and the correct team got the fumble recovery at least, though they weren't able to capitalise. In the second instance they didn't even rule it a fumble! Crazy, and all because the refs are whistle-happy.
Anyway, enough whinging and on to the picks

Den @ NE - If Denver win this one, you may want to save me a spot on the pew for your next sermon Parson. However, this time Tebow has to play against an uninjured QB and more importantly, away from Mile High.

NO @ SF - I actually think SF will lose this one but got to put on my rose tinted specs and fly the flag for my team.

Hou @ BAL - This will be a close one I think but the Ravens pass rush should unsettle Yates enough to cause mistakes. I have no confidence in Flacco however, so Baltimore's D had better keep the opposition quiet.

NYG @ GB - I want to pick the Giants here, but gone with the home team. This is the one team GB didn't want to face though. It'll be a tough test.

Looks like I've gone for a home sweep again! The odds of the home sides running the table both weeks is very low though, so no doubt I've got a loser in there somewhere.

[Culhwch]

I can tell you where that louder still be, WS, if you want me too!

Den @ NE - Absolutely no way, no way, Tebow does it again. Unless he does. Pats haven't been good in the postseason in a long while. That surely should change here.

NO @ SF - The Niners only chance is if the Saints beat themselves. Could happen. Can't see it though. Gave it away twice early in the Detroit game but held them well. Smith is no Stafford. I think that San Fran's defense is probably two scores better than the Lions, but their offense is easily two scores worse.

Hou @ Bal - Houston surprised me this week, and they really shouldn't have. I doubt they will do the same again. Baltimore, but in a close, low scoring affair.

NYG @ GB - Yeah, I did it. I always intended to pick the Giants if they won through to play the Pack. Nothing has happened to change my mind. this may be suicide in this comp. A gift two points for everyone but me...

[jojajihisc]

Den @ NE
NO @ SF
Hou @ Bal
NYG @ GB

Did anybody notice how CBS called the Pit/Den overtime the "first non-sudden death overtime" when it was/is exactly that? Modified sudden death would have been the correct way to describe it.

And why do they have to change the rules going into the post-season and not at the beginning of the next regular season?

Here is what the rule says:

Each team must possess or have the opportunity to possess the ball unless the team that has the ball first scores a touchdown on its initial possession. Play continues in sudden death until a winner is determined, and the game automatically ends upon any score (by safety, field goal, or touchdown) or when a score is awarded by the Referee for a palpably unfair act.

So I guess the major change they made was that if a team goes down and kicks a field goal the other team gets a chance to possess the ball at least once after that. More importantly once each team has possessed the ball the next score or any kind ends the game - which is sudden death.

What I'd like to know, even though the likelihood of it happening is remote, is what happens if on the kickoff the kick returner is tackled in the end zone for a safety? I'm guessing that then because the team that was receiving the kick off has to "free kick" the ball to the other team they would then still have a chance to get the ball so long as the team receiving the free kick doesn't score a touchdown.

Why they can't just let the teams play a standard 15 minute quarter I'm not sure. If that's too long then maybe 10 or 8 minutes? What they don't seem to understand is that they need to remove the importance of the luck of calling the coin flip correctly. It was important before and it still is now.

[Winters_Sorrow]

I see where you're coming from Joja and agree it's a bit of a lottery still as you'd bank on a good offence still being able to drive down and score a TD on their first possession. The Denver example was a bit of a freak play to finish the game, though you can't argue they didn't deserve to win on the balance of play.

If I were to amend the rules I'd give both teams a possession, regardless of what they scored to give the same opportunities to both sides, though it seems the NFL prefers to award the TD scoring team as much as possible, which is understandable given the way it's steered the rules towards rewarding good offence over good defence.

I think in your example, if the team receiving the free kick got a FG the match would be over as, despite how crap their possession was, the original team still had the ball. It's little different from if the returner fumbled the ball running it out. Hard cheese really.

Considering how controversial it was to even amend the rules to what it is now, I can't see any further changes unless they feel it's not working as intended (which will only happen when some team has a hard luck story which has the US talking e.g. The Tuck rule in the Oakland/Pats game).

[jojajihisc]

Originally Posted by Winters_Sorrow

I think in your example, if the team receiving the free kick got a FG the match would be over as, despite how crap their possession was, the original team still had the ball. It's little different from if the returner fumbled the ball running it out. Hard cheese really.

Yeah, you're probably right. Since the same team would then have scored two consecutive times. Bad example. I'd still prefer to see the importance of getting a coin toss correct diminished. Luck plays its part in all sports but there's no reason to add it in if you don't have to.

I think in the NO/SF game the key will be can the 49ers get enough pressure on Brees to disrupt the Saints high scoring offense and can Frank Gore run on a pretty good Saints run defense? If Gore can be really effective he can keep Brees on the sideline for long stretches which is critical to beating that team. Much harder to imagine is Alex Smith having game changing offensive output but the Niners may need just that from him to win.

[Parson]

Originally Posted by Winters_Sorrow

Den @ NE - If Denver win this one, you may want to save me a spot on the pew for your next sermon Parson. However, this time Tebow has to play against an uninjured QB and more importantly, away from Mile High.

I really wanted a reason to root for Denver; now I have one. I have a nice spot in the front pew all picked out for you.


Still I pick this way:

Den @ NE ... I will be rooting for Denver, see above. But I pick New England. Too complete a team for Denver to beat on the road.
NO @ SF ... This is a hard pick. I think San Fran is good enough to win. But I think their D has to score, and more than a touchdown, to stay with the NO juggernaut
Hou @ Bal ... Having learned a hard lesson last week picking 3 roadies to win. I pick the home team in a game I consider completely evenly matched.
NYG @ GB ... Before last week's game I wouldn't have thought twice about this one. The Giant defense was phenomenal. Still I think too much GB offense and fair defense are too much for the Giants to handle.

[Grimward]

Nice slate of games.

Here's where the cranium currently sits (could be a change):

Den @ NE I don't see Denver stopping New England's offense. So unless Tebow goes Iron Man...

NO @ SF I think this will be close, but much as I like SF this year, I can't do it, WS

Hou @ Bal Defense, defense, defense

NYG @ GB If there's a team that shouldn't be bothered by the Frozen Tundra, it's the Giants. They've been erratic all year, though, and I think Aaron Rogers picks them apart. Er...you guys don't detect a small bias here, do ya?

[J-Sun]

Still have Ursa to go again but the splits thus far are not very - 22 out of 24 picks agree. Cul's being bold and WS is being loyal :

Consensus:
DEN @ wNE
HOU @ wBAL

Solo:
cul: wNYG @ GB
ws: NO @ wSF

[Ursa major]

It appears, Grim, that there was a joke in my prediction post last week: the set of predictions.

However, in spite of the system's obvious feebleness, I have no choice but to present its finger-in-the... well... -air guesses this week, As usual, they're listed in order of likelihood (from the most to the least), with the winners in bold:

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco Forty-Niners

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

[Parson]

Originally Posted by Ursa major

It appears, Grim, that there was a joke in my prediction post last week: the set of predictions.

However, in spite of the system's obvious feebleness, I have no choice but to present its finger-in-the... well... -air guesses this week, As usual, they're listed in order of likelihood (from the most to the least), with the winners in bold:

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco Forty-Niners

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

But as I remember the guesses from last week, the most likely pick was wrong.