Football (american football to those across the pond!)

[Grimward]

We've usually run the post-season as a separate process that doesn't require reg. season participation, Oh Great Moderator of the Northern Sky, or at least there is precedent (as the thread's founder, I'm expected to say something official like that!). And while I don't want to put words in his mouth, I imagine that Mr. Parson would rather have more people playing, not less.

On the clean-up front, yes the Rams did also dump their GM. But coming back to the Colts, yes they had a terrible season. Oh well, when it comes to ego, like father like son. Irsay Sr. smuggled the Colts out of Baltimore under cover of darkness to avoid (or so he thought) publicity, Irsay Jr. booted the 6-time NFL Executive of the Year (and GM with the 2nd winningest record since 2000) out so that he could have more control of the team. Guess we can't poo-poo the move until we see who he brings in and how they do, but them's some pretty large cleats to fill.

Now, for this weekend:

Sat:
Cin @ Hou
Det @ NO

Sun:
Atl @ NYG The Giants at home in Jan. gives me great pause (a la Ursa's hands).
Pit @ Den

[Parson]

I had no idea that we were dealing with lawyers in this group. ---- Just to say what I thought was abundantly clear (without saying it); of course the playoff contest will start with a clean slate. I will wait a day or two before I make my picks, it's 11:15 and for a person who normally rises between 5:30 and 6:30 it's definitely numb brain time; and I want to make a better showing here than I did for the regular season.

(My excuse? Well I watch much less ESPN Sportscenter, in that I take a 4 mile walk at that time about 6 days a week. A wise decision but it makes me less of a prognosticator.)

Grim's non-objection not withstanding, so far it looks likes WS's plan.

[J-Sun]

Originally Posted by Parson

(My excuse? Well I watch much less ESPN Sportscenter, in that I take a 4 mile walk at that time about 6 days a week. A wise decision but it makes me less of a prognosticator.)

I can get in on that excuse - I don't have cable.

In news from around the league, da Bearss let Angelo go, but are keeping Smith. I'm not sure Smith's the guy, but I like him so I guess I'm glad he's staying. I don't think it's yet official but it looks pretty certain Martz will be gone. I think he did surprisingly well in a sense (he at least adjusted a little some of the time and didn't always try to make the Bears be the Turf Rams) but he's just not a Bear and I don't think it could have worked out, really.

Then there's this about owner/gm/scout/coach/cheerleader Jones which merits this oldie-but-goodie. Think if I passed around a collection plate a few billion of us could put a dollar in and get the team from him? It's the ONLY thing that can save them.

Oh, and as I'm sure Parson knows, the Vikes elevated somebody (I forget who) to GM.

[Parson]

Yes, I know, now.... Thanks for the heads up. The promoted Spielman from inside the ranks. A lot of football people think he's a good one, but you are never any better than your last draft and/or trade. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/74...eneral-manager

Draft prediction: With the third pick in the draft the Vikings take Rolando Blackmon from Oklahoma State.

[Grimward]

Grim's non-objection not withstanding, so far it looks likes WS's plan.

Allow me to nudge my vote firmly underneath the column entitled "Support for WS' plan". And speaking of legal precedent, I briefly wondered whether Rolando Blackmon was related to the late Supreme Court Justice Harry....until I remembered that his last name was Blackmun.....synaptical disconnect!

[Culhwch]

I don't see much college ball, but wouldn't that be Justin Blackmon? I think the Rams will take him before your guys have a chance, Parse. They need an offensive weapon to pair with Bradford. I figure the Vikes go with an OT like Matt Kalil.

[J-Sun]

Coaches with tenure, apparently. What will it take for Reid or Turner to get fired? I would imagine, despite the lack of ultimatums for either, that it really, finally, at last, would be "get a ring or else" next year. (Well, or at least a solid season from beginning to end and at least one playoff win for Turner.) But I would have thought that was the case this year.

[Culhwch]

I read in an article today (can't recall where just now) that Turner was told by Chargers ownership six or seven weeks ago that he had to win out or he'd be gone. I wonder which was false - the report or management's resolve...?

That Reid survived doesn't really surprise me, but I thought Turner would go.

[Winters_Sorrow]

Originally Posted by Grimward

Allow me to nudge my vote firmly underneath the column entitled "Support for WS' plan"

Well it is voting season shortly in the US isn't it?
My 5-point plan to success in the playoffs is as follows:
1) Never count out Tom Brady unless you're really sure. Even then, review.
2) Good offence beats good defence most of the time in the NFL now, so pick accordingly (kinda rules out my Niners...hmm)
3) Home advantage still exists, unless you really really suck as a team. Hence Seattle's unexpected playoff win last season (sorry Cul)
4) Be prepared to ignore all previous points above if your "gut" tells you otherwise.
5) When all else fails you, copy Jo's pick!

Originally Posted by J-Sun

Coaches with tenure, apparently. What will it take for Reid or Turner to get fired? I would imagine, despite the lack of ultimatums for either, that it really, finally, at last, would be "get a ring or else" next year. (Well, or at least a solid season from beginning to end and at least one playoff win for Turner.) But I would have thought that was the case this year.

Not too surprised that both are staying really. The trouble with coaches is that if you get rid of an 'experienced' one you need someone who the fans will accept as equally good or better as a replacement. Despite their shocking seasons, Turner is regarded as an offensive coach par excellance and Andy Reid likewise. The sad thing is the same old names are floated every time a 'major' vacancy comes up - Gruden, Cowher etc - which limits the opportunities even more for the younger coaches coming through.

Put it this way, I can see Wade Phillips getting another head coaching job before Raheem Morris or Spagnoulo. There's almost a reverse ageism thing going on. And I still think there is a 'ceiling' (for want of a better word) for non-white coaches and they seem to be sacked much more quickly - Lovie Smith being the exception to date (though he's on thin ice next season too).

I wonder whether we'll ever see a female coach in the NFL too? I don't see a lot of college coverage so I don't know if they are present there. You can't even argue about needing to have 'played the game' - plenty of successful coaches out there who never got onto the field. Doubt it though - rampant sexism seems more widely accepted with many nasty incidents reported last year, which I'm sure only scratches the surface.

[J-Sun]

Martz is officially gone now. Also dumped the QB coach. It'll be interesting to see who they get. If the Bears could just stay healthy and legal, they may have a good year next year. And I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Martz land on his feet at a place he fits.

Originally Posted by Culhwch

I read in an article today (can't recall where just now) that Turner was told by Chargers ownership six or seven weeks ago that he had to win out or he'd be gone. I wonder which was false - the report or management's resolve...?

I don't know, but probably the report - if they'd painted themselves in that corner, it'd be too easy to just go through with it.

Originally Posted by Winters_Sorrow

Not too surprised that both are staying really. The trouble with coaches is that if you get rid of an 'experienced' one you need someone who the fans will accept as equally good or better as a replacement. Despite their shocking seasons, Turner is regarded as an offensive coach par excellance...

Well, that's just it - I gather Philly fans are getting tired of the Reid situation and Chargers fans are basically screaming for Turner's head and would probably be happy if Eric Mangini was made head coach. (I think they also want the GM to go and would probably accept Matt Millen.)

Originally Posted by Winters_Sorrow

Put it this way, I can see Wade Phillips getting another head coaching job before Raheem Morris or Spagnoulo.

I hope not - I mean, not the priority of them, but Phillips getting a head coaching job at all. There's too much emphasis put on head coaches (in the abstract). There's nothing wrong in being a truly excellent coordinator and people who are should take great pride in that. Some people just don't have the skill set to be a great head coach but I don't think that makes them less of a great coach - just a different kind. I don't know that Phillips would never be a great head coach but he just seems to excel at turning defenses around and that's a fine thing. Just a shame that the Texans got so beat up, including having even Phillips miss games. The one year the Colts get out of the picture, the Texans are still cursed, it seems.

[Culhwch]

The Texans are fairly well placed going forward though. I honestly couldn't even guess if Manning will be back, or if Luck will be the starter next year, but either way the Colts have plenty more wrong than just the QB position. The Jags are a disgrace, and I can't see them turning it around quickly. The Titans alway seem middle of the pack. Likely will have a second year QB next year, and I can't see them doing too much. The Texans meanwhile get Shaub, Williams and a few other key pieces back, will still have Johnson, Foster and Tate, and given a little more luck, could dominate the AFC...

[Parson]

Playoffs (Wild Card round)

Goodness, there are some tricky games here. But I suppose that's as it should be bad teams (mostly) don't get invited. You could make the case that Denver is a bad team. They are certainly more flawed than any other playoff team -- which does not mean that they will lose this week.

Sat:
Cin @ Hou --- Very tough call. Do you go with the hot team or the home team? I'm picking Cinci by the hair of a toad.
Det @ NO --- The only way Detroit wins this game is if New Orleans loses it. I make NO a 2 turnover favorite (Interpretation= New Orleans has to make 2 more turnovers for it to be a coin flip contest.)

Sun:
Atl @ NYG --- Another tough call. Do you go with the hot team or the home team. The Parson daringly goes for the hot visitor from "hotlanta."
Pit @ Den --- Pittsburgh can match Denver's unbelievable D and has immensely more O. But between Denver being home and the supposed Divine intervention, I'm worried about this pick.

[J-Sun]

I gather Ursa and others will be picking but last week's crew has picked now and the splits thus far are:

Consensus:
DET @ wNO
wPIT @ DEN

Split:
cul & grim & jo & ws: ATL @ wNYG
j & pars: wATL @ NYG

grim & j & ws: CIN @ wHOU
cul & jo & pars: wCIN @ HOU

No solos.

[Culhwch]

Originally Posted by Parson

Det @ NO --- The only way Detroit wins this game is if New Orleans loses it. I make NO a 2 turnover favorite (Interpretation= New Orleans has to make 2 more turnovers for it to be a coin flip contest.)

The thing is I can easily see New Orleans giving up two turnovers. Especially if it is a shoot-out and Brees is throwing a lot (although when doesn't Brees throw a lot...), those are the kind of games where he'll make a bad decision and throw into coverage, or a ball will pop up off a receiver's hands and drop for a defender. Stafford to Johnson scares me, especially if it's late in the game and the margin is slim.

This game falls at a perfect time for me - midday on Sunday - and I'm actually busy for the first time in forever. Going to have to record it and watch it later. Might be a good omen, though - I watched the Seahawks game last year live, and look how that one turned out.

[Ursa major]

I've blown the dust and cobwebs off the old system. After much hissing and wheezing, it has produced the following predictions, listed in order of likelihood (from the most to the least):

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants