Population of the Various Races and Nations of Middle-earth

[sarakoth]

Just how many are there?

[pyan]

From Middle-earth Populations | Populations of Middle-earth

In September 1995, John Blackburn asked a simple question: "Where does everyone live (in Middle-earth)?" I wrote an off-the-cuff essay on where people live in Middle-earth in response. Trying to list all those peoples and their locations got me to thinking about something, and that's "How many people were there in Middle-Earth?"

The question has always tantalized me because many people incorrectly equate Middle-Earth society with Medieval European society, even though there are many cues in LOTR which indicate Tolkien was not basing his societies on Medieval Europe.

For instance, the armies are too large to be supported by Medieval economies. Theoden told the messenger from Gondor he had hoped to lead 12,000 warriors to Gondor. Few medieval armies actually were that large. Even the crusaders moved around in smaller groups and came together only briefly because they couldn't solve the logistics of supplying large armies.

Fewer than 3,000 men marched to Minas Tirith to support the city against Sauron's assault under the Morgul-Lord, and yet they expected about ten times as many reinforcements. More than 30,000 troops attacked Minas Tirith, in fact. Also, when Aragorn led the Army of the West against Mordor, he started out with about 7,000 men, ended up with barely more than 6,000, and had to face off against 50,000+ Easterlings and Orcs.

Tolkien does indicate a strong Germanic influence for his Northmen, though, and perhaps he had in mind some similarities between the Northern Peoples and ancient Germans beyond language.

For instance, historians have a difficult time estimating the numbers of the Gothic peoples because they were constantly splitting up and reuniting. The largest group, however, is estimated to have been no more than 100,000 people with 15,000 warriors. These Goths lived in the 5th Century and were supported to a large extent by the huge estates of the Roman Empire.

Still, if we equate the Rohirrim with the Goths in terms of numbers, there may have been been 80,000-90,000 Rohirrim. The army which attacked Helm's Deep was estimated (I believe) to be about 10,000 warriors consisting of Orcs, Half-Orcs, and Dunlendings. If we guess the Dunlendings made up half the force, that means they were fielding an army of about 5,000 men. Maybe another 1,000 would have stayed in Dunland. That leaves us to infer about 45,000 Dunlendings (and to assume they would have had equal economies).

How many people were there in other lands? I can't really guess at Gondor's population with any hope of accuracy, but if Gondor could field 30,000 men at the end of the Third Age, there may have been as many as 100,000-150,000 more who were unable to take up arms for lack of training (in "civilized" societies, fewer men have martial skills than in "barbaric" societies). Hence, Gondor may have had anywhere from 750,000 to 1,000,000 people.

What about Esgaorth and Dale? They probably had much smaller populations than Rohan, so figure maybe 10,000 people apiece (okay, 20,000 apiece). Thranduil led only a few thousand warriors to Dale in the Battle of Five Armies. If Celeborn and Galadriel had a similar number of Elves under their command, we can guess there may have been about 20,000 Sylvan Elf warriors in the two kingdoms. But how many Elves does that represent? Probably no more than 45,000 - 50,000, given the long life-spans of Elves.

Dain led 500 Dwarves to Dale in the Battle of Five Armies. Tolkien suggests that Dwarf-women made up about a third of the population. Given the perils that came from the east, Dain would have been unlikely to leave the Iron Hills undefended, so maybe another 500 armed Dwarves stayed home? Pure speculation, and yet that suggests about 1,000 male Dwarves fit for combat in the Iron Hills in the 30th Century. Thorin said he had relatives further away than the Iron Hills, so figure the House of Durin could field several thousand Dwarven warriors -- say, 5,000. Pure speculation. Nonetheless, from that we can infer a total population of less than 10,000 (Dwarves are long-lived too).

There were fewer than 400 Mannish houses in the four villages of Bree-land, so we can infer there were fewer than 3,000 Mannish Bree-landers. I don't recall any numbers for Bree-land Hobbits.

Halbarad brought 30 Dunedain from the north to help Aragorn, but his words that that was all he could gather of their people in such haste implies there were more than that (and several Dunedain had recently been slain by the Nazghul when they entered the Shire). So we have nothing to work with in guessing at the numbers of the Dunedain of the North, but since they were unwilling to dwell in an open kingdom, perhaps there were no more than a couple of thousand.

The population of the Shire was probably easily over 100,000 -- perhaps as many as 200,000. It's really hard to tell, since we saw so little of it.

Seems well-reasoned enough.

[sarakoth]

Originally Posted by pyan

From Middle-earth Populations | Populations of Middle-earth



Seems well-reasoned enough.

His analysis for the lands of Rohan, the Dwarves, Ithilien, and Dunland were made based on the assumption that all able-bodied men were warriors. That does not make much sense as able-bodied men were required to produce food. Also, his statements about medieval Europe are mostly false. He estimated that the nation of Gondor has a population around a million. However, medieval France had an estimated population of seventeen million. His statement about the size of Middle-earth armies being larger than medieval armies is also false. Large medieval European armies numbered in the tens of thousands. Large Arab armies numbered over one hundred thousand, though not deployed at the same time. Also, European knights were professional warriors, not the militia he used as the basis of his analysis.

[andrew.v.spencer]

Interesting question, it certainly appears that Middle Earth was largely empty, with small populations separated by large distances. That for me was always one of the fascinating elements of the stories. If one reads the appendicies it seems that the population was in long decline, and it was the aching sadness of the slow destruction of the civilized world that echoed through the tale.

.

[pyan]

Originally Posted by sarakoth

His analysis for the lands of Rohan, the Dwarves, Ithilien, and Dunland were made based on the assumption that all able-bodied men were warriors. That does not make much sense as able-bodied men were required to produce food.

No he doesn't. Read it carefully...

Rohan: population: 80,000 - Army:12,000
Dunland: population: 45,000 - fighters: 5,000
Dwarves: population: 10,000 - fighters: 5,000
Ithilien? not mentioned, as it was an empty land by then. If you mean Gondor: About 1 million, with an army of 30,000.

Originally Posted by sarakoth

Also, his statements about medieval Europe are mostly false. He estimated that the nation of Gondor has a population around a million. However, medieval France had an estimated population of seventeen million.

Gondor is in decline at this time, with Minas Tirith, for example, housing half as many people as it could. And France is three times the size of Gondor anyway, so I fail to see the relevance of the quoted statistic.

[sarakoth]

Exactly my point

Take Rohan for example, 12,000 is a very significant portion of 80,000. There are about 40,000 men in a population of 80,000 and it is reasonable to believe that one third is children and another third is elderly. Also, about the France thing, I was only giving an example about how the author of that article is mistaken in his view of medieval Europe. He stated that Middle-earth has a higher population than medieval Europe indirectly by stating European armies of that time were smaller (also false) than armies of Middle-earth. However, medieval France, which was about half the size of modern France, has a population seventeen times that of Gondor and possibly more than that of Middle-earth towards the end of the Third Age.

[pyan]

But don't forget, we're not talking about a war of land acquisition here, or your usual petty differences between nations. This is Armageddon for the West if Mordor wins....a last ditch attempt to avoid total annihilation.
I would expect, under those circumstances, a much higher proportion of the total population to be involved in the fighting than in the small wars of mediæval Europe.

[sarakoth]

Originally Posted by pyan

But don't forget, we're not talking about a war of land acquisition here, or your usual petty differences between nations. This is Armageddon for the West if Mordor wins....a last ditch attempt to avoid total annihilation.
I would expect, under those circumstances, a much higher proportion of the total population to be involved in the fighting than in the small wars of mediæval Europe.

That's a very good point. However, wouldn't the maximum amount of people available be deployed if the situation is that dire? Theoden could only muster half the riders he expected and where was the army of Gondor numbering 30,000?

[Rhi]

Originally Posted by sarakoth

Take Rohan for example, 12,000 is a very significant portion of 80,000. There are about 40,000 men in a population of 80,000 and it is reasonable to believe that one third is children and another third is elderly.

I doubt very much that one third of the population would have been elderly. Back in medieval days, the average life expectancy was about 50 - they just didn't have good enough living conditions to live for as long as we do, and their general health was much poorer.

Although, according to the appendix regarding Aragorn and Arwen, he lived to be about 110 [she was an elf so her age doesn't count]. How exactly any mortal man achieved such a feat is completely beyond me...

[sarakoth]

Originally Posted by Rhi

I doubt very much that one third of the population would have been elderly. Back in medieval days, the average life expectancy was about 50 - they just didn't have good enough living conditions to live for as long as we do, and their general health was much poorer.

Although, according to the appendix regarding Aragorn and Arwen, he lived to be about 110 [she was an elf so her age doesn't count]. How exactly any mortal man achieved such a feat is completely beyond me...

According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, the average life expectancy in Classical Rome and Medieval Europe was 20-30.

However, Middle-earth seems rather utopian to me. Perhaps the Valar have rid the lands of illness and blessed the lands with fertility.

[pyan]

Originally Posted by Rhi

Although, according to the appendix regarding Aragorn and Arwen, he lived to be about 110 [she was an elf so her age doesn't count]. How exactly any mortal man achieved such a feat is completely beyond me...

I think you have misread the Appendices, Rhi.

Aragorn was 210 years old when he died...and the Kings of Gondor had a strong strain of the original Numenorean blood in them.

[sarakoth]

Another thing, the Shire could not have sustained 100,000 hobbits. I doubt it could even sustain 20,000.