House Greyjoy?Dumb For Attacking The North???

[Lord_of_the_morning]

House Greyjoy should have taken Robb's offer to ally with him and move south. If you end up winning in the south, the Starks and Tully's will not care if the realm is torn apart. However, if the south wins, they will want a united kingdom. And holding the North, the majority of which is inland, is not an easy task, as Theon found out. An attack on the scantly protected Lannister lands would have provided a lot of easy looting, and in hindsight might have made Tywin move west even faster than Robb's strike on land, which would have left King's Landing unguarded.

Balon might say that it was Robb's choice of wording in the letter that set him off, but he'd been gathering his forces for a while and had already planned his strike by the time Theon got there. Another bad move after his first rebellion against the throne. If he wanted to break off, doing it during or right after Robert's winning of the Throne would be the best time, and partly legitimate if they considered Robert to be usupring the Targaeryns. But to wait a few years and rebel when the Realm was united under Robert was another mistake.

Too add to that now, after they've pissed of the North, they go and attack the Tyrells, the worst place to attack next. If they'ld attacked the Lannisters, the Tyrells might have been slow to respond, and they have the only fleet that can match the Iron Fleet. So now they've pissed off everyone.

[Boaz]

Originally Posted by Lord_of_the_morning

So now they've pissed off everyone.

I don't think the opinions of outsiders is very high on the Ironborn's chart of concerns.

Lotm, I think this is a good topic. I hope Aegon chimes in. Egg is sort of our local expert on Lo Pan, err, I mean military history, strategies, and tactics.

Attacking the North was stupid from an economic standpoint. The coastlines of the Lannisters and Tyrells offers much better plunder than the Starks'.

Attacking the North was a smart way to get experience for Balon's troops. The North was undefended so the Ironborn got to work out the kinks in their operational schedules, their chain of command, their communications, their weapons, etc. Once their warmachine was up and running efficiently, then their attacks upon the Tyrells succeeded very well.

Attacking the North was a smart way to keep Tywin away from the West. Any raiding on Lannisport and it's environs would have drawn not only Tywin, but some combination of the Royal Fleet, the Dornish Fleet, and the Tyrell Fleet sailing towards the Iron Islands.

Attacking the North was the Stark death knell and the Lannister second wind. Robb's coalition could not withstand a two front war. This allowed the Lannisters a free hand to deal with the Baratheon brothers. Balon did not know Stannis would sail to the Wall. But he knew that Renly and Tywin would be at each other's throats with the Martells and Arryns joining in sooner or later.

The Lannisters combination of heirs, money, troops, and alliances at the end of AGOT was stronger than the Starks, the Greyjoys, the Tyrells (Renly), or Stannis. But the Lannisters were beset by threats... the Starks in the north, Stannis to the east, and Renly in the south. The Lannisters could not win a three front war. Knowing that Stannis, Renly, and Joffrey could not ally with each other, Balon selected Robb to attack. Robb was the one who could tip the balance to either Stannis or Renly... but with the Starks defeated, the south would stay divided and woud remain impotent to mount a coordinated defense against Greyjoy raiding.

Not attacking the Lannisters was smart. If Balon had toppled the Lions from the top, then Renly would have gained the Martells and he would have destroyed Stannis... Balon knew nothing about Melisandre. With Stannis and Tywin dead, Lysa would have not had an excuse to not openly support Renly. This Renly, Tyrell, Martell, and Arryn alliance would have been too much for any combination of Greyjoy, Stark, and Tully.

I thinks Balon's options were attacking the Starks or the Tyrells. By attacking the Starks, he lured the Tyrells into a false confidence. Once the Tyrells sailed for Dragonstone, Euron attacked them to devastating effect.

[Lord_of_the_morning]

i can see where that is but...Now Euron's decision to invade the Tyrell's...after he sent half of the iron fleet away...now the tyrell's WHOLE fleet is coming after the crow's eye....is that much of a genreal..i think not...and idk but can they stand against the tyrell's fleet ???

[Aegon the Unworthy]

"Relax everybody, Im here" Jack Burton-Big Trouble in Little China

Actually youre kinda missing the point in sea battles there LotM. The limiting factor in sea battles is ships not manpower. The limiting factor in those ships is your ability to repair and replace them.

With the Tyrells fleet on the east coast, their ability to sustain and reinforce that fleet were undefended on the west coast. By striking at the Tyrells theyve shortened the duration the Tyrells can expect to maintain full operability on the ocean, in fact they are now living off of former Tyrell land. Which in a sense acts as a form of "force multiplication". Thats a fancy term for essentially making the enemy weak at the same time you make yerself strong.

So if they attack the east coast, not only will the Tyrells be able to counter relatively quickly, but the possible gains out of such a raid will be less (war-torn Lannister lands vs the prospering untouched Arbor) and likely defended better.

Dont get me wrong, living off the Tyrells is a bold move, but now you force them to decide if they want to attack the well-defended but resource poor Greyjoy islands and allow the Greyjoys to resupply themselves from the Tyrells own larders or retake their own islands in a relatively empty gesture which would likely destroy those strongholds in the process.

If the Tyrells fleet is so large as to be able to destroy them quickly, Euron has no chance in the first place. If not a War of attrition could take place where the Greyjoys are able to replace their ships and supplies quicker than the Tyrells can. Thats a good way to make the war winnable.

[Werthead]

As others have said. Attacking the North gave the ironborn easy pickings, access to hostages and supplies and put them in the good graces of whoever won in the South once the time came to work out the post-war settlements. I'm pondering if Balon even did it to set up a future bargain where he gave the North back to the victor in the war in return for the Iron Islands' continue independence.

As for Euron's actions, again they make sense but only from a more limited point-of-view. Devastating the Tyrell homelands forces the Tyrells to send their fleet back to the west coast and creates dissension in the Tyrell armies, thus leading to the war not being properly concluded (the Tyrells failed to retake Storm's End, for example, and the Riverlands are still not fully pacified), thus dividing the mainlanders and giving the ironborn more time to act (and more time for their emissaries to get to Meereen and capture Dany's dragons). Actually, things have gone even better than expected, with Cersei and Margaery's arrest by the Faith giving the Tyrells a third situation to deal with.

I'm also wondering if the ironbron objective was to capture the Arbor and take the Redwyne family hostage? If so, then the Redwyne fleet's ability to intervene may be limited (as Paxter can be held to ransom for his family's safety).

[KiwiBird]

The problem with the whole plan, is that they fail to finish, neither the Tyrells or the North are mortally wounded at this point.

Once the North gathers under 1 leader the greyjoys are finished there.

[Lord_of_the_morning]

but I think that the north will not rally under 1 leader for a while...noone can step up...rickon to young..Bran went past teh wall,Jon Staying at lor commander position...arya-shes with the faceless men..And sansa is at the eyrie

[KiwiBird]

That because you are looking at the wrong candidates.
You have Roose Bolton, whom suppossedly has gathered half of the north behind him now. And then you got Stannis, who is also ready to make his move. (you can check out the spoiler chapters wich Martin has read on various events.)

Either one of them is more then enough to kick the Greyjoys out of the North when you consider that most of their forces have withdrawn and been deployed against the Tyrells.

However at the moment Roose is stuck at the neck. And Stannis will hope to gain the Ironborn alliance (Asha) in his support for kingship.

[Lord_of_the_morning]

yes but loyal norhtmen wil never rally behing stannis...and they know that roose is well a peice of _ _ _ _!! So as roose has allready gathered half of the north...Then he must have the half that wasn't to loyal to the young wolf...

[KiwiBird]

Thats not exactly true, the fact is that the Starks are believed to have died out.(the males at least). And Sansa has married a lannister. The northman must go on in the future, when you realize the north believes ramsay married Arya it is only natural that many will rally too him. Moreover it seems clear that the Boltons are on of the most powerful houses in the North and that they have lost almost no men as of yet.

As for Stannis, ... thats a bit of a spoiler so....

[Lord_of_the_morning]

ha i ahve not heard anythign about the new book well i have heard some but not much and i don't want to know thatm uch really....but I beleive that maybe they will rally behing roose but i beleive that the most loyal to robb will not....and they will either wait for jon to take teh call(if he ever does) or they will jsut defend there own hold's