Science prophesy

[Princess Ivy]

the first time someone told me that science fiction could be prohetic scared the hell out of me. the example used was 1984 and russia. every now an again i read something and bells start to jingle, one such was brave new world another the eyes of hiesenberg both of which feature genetic tampering. So, are these (and many others) just brilliant wrting coupled with a solid grip on science, or were those writers simply prophets of a new age?

[Joel007]

I don't think they claimed to have divine insights into the world of tomorrow, they just looked at where the world was going and made up a story that highlighted some theme of what could go wrong, and sometimes they got close to the truth.
Anyway, the best stories, the ones that influence people, are the ones with a basic truth as the central message.

[j. d. worthington]

I'm in agreement with Joel. All of the sf writers I've encountered, when questioned on the subject, get very uncomfortable with the idea that they're predicting anything. Most, however, are quite comfortable with saying that they're writing cautionary tales about trends that they see and their possible outcomes, often based on both the harder sciences and current sociological aspects.

And the best sf, frankly, does this more than try to predict any scientific or technological advances of the future, as those tend to go in directions no one could possibly anticipate that clearly. But when they deal with the effects of such changes on society, and/or deal simply the very rich metaphoric possibilities of the medium, then they are able to address genuine human concerns and examine issues while nonetheless telling an engrossing story ... and sometimes this may have the effect of getting readers to look at these things enough to alter the outcome.

[mightymem]

this is true the science fictions author often try to just make a point rather then predict anything.

[manephelien]

Absolutely. Although the Department of Homeland Security does bring uncomfortable associations with the Ministry of Peace in 1984. The current US administration wants everyone to see the world their way, and if they don't, they're unpatriotic at best and downright traitors at worst. I'm so glad I'm not American! It may have come 30 years later, but if things continue as they have, the US will live under Big Brother ten years from now.

[j. d. worthington]

Which is what more than a few of us are a little concerned about at present....

As for the question the thread is about: They may not be predicting, but, being fairly good at observing, and at extrapolating from trends, they're often able to get uncannily close to the way society goes at times... And part of this, of course, is the fact that sf also has much in common with parable and fable, which were designed to do the same thing....

[SpaceShip]

How we used to laugh in the '50s as we watched the very first TV series about spaceships with the writers' imaginations taking us to other planets. The next decade put man on the moon! It was then "oooo" rather than "haha".

I think there is a space space within our brains through which we can look and see things not yet seen!

[dustinzgirl]

Perhaps all our stories, fables, myths, legends, fictions and dreams are actually snippets of parallel universes seeping through small threads in the fabrics of reality.

[mosaix]

Originally Posted by manephelien

Absolutely. Although the Department of Homeland Security does bring uncomfortable associations with the Ministry of Peace in 1984. The current US administration wants everyone to see the world their way, and if they don't, they're unpatriotic at best and downright traitors at worst. I'm so glad I'm not American! It may have come 30 years later, but if things continue as they have, the US will live under Big Brother ten years from now.

Interesting isn't it? Margaret Thatcher in 1984, talking about 1984 was adamant that her administration had done it's part in preventing 1984 becoming reality. What she failed to realise was that 1984 was a police state not a worker state and her use of the police as an arm of Government against the miners in the 80's actually brought the reality of 1984 a whole lot closer.

Unfortunately it's not just the US that seems to have its Big Brother problems. The current administration in the UK seems to be taking us down a similar road. They're not as up-front about it as in the US but recent legislation, under the guise of anti-terrorsim laws, is worrying.

[Talysia]

It's difficult to say whether sf authors are able to predict the future through their writing. I couldn't really say whether it's possible for an author to predict the future through their writing or not, but is it likely that they could inadvertantly affect the future by the things they suggest?
Thinking of 1984, I don't know whether it was intended to be a warning or simply a piece of fiction, but everyone knows the 'big brother is watching you' phenomenon from it. Granted, civilization may have been heading that way anyway, but is it possible that this inspired some rather than warned?
Also, a lot of sci-fi deals with advanced technology along with concepts, and that, too, inspires people. Without the likes of HG Wells and War of the Worlds all those years ago, would it have taken us longer to consider trying to get mankind into space?

[j. d. worthington]

Well, on the subject of 1984... it was written in the mid-1940s, as I recall, and published in 1948 (hence the choice of numbers, only transposed); and Orwell was drawing on what he saw happening in Russia for his model of the society in the novel. I'm not really sure quite how much Wells influenced people as far as advancing space travel... that one may well remain an open question; most of the advances in that field came from much later causes, and even as late as the early 1950s, the majority of the populace were complete scoffers at the idea. And in the U.S., we were so sluggish with it that it took the fear of the Soviets beating us to it to get us moving.

Sputnik 1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Up until then, we'd been rather slow in moving on this. Still, Wells certainly caused a lot of young people to dream in new ways, and perhaps some of those were the ones who began the early rocket experiments. Verne is more likely the one for that, though, as he did spend more time with the mechanics of it than Wells, who saw his as "scientific romances".

In general: can they affect the future by their writings? Yes, certainly. As can any writer, artist, filmmaker, etc. (Remember the influence of Wagner and Nietzsche on the Nazi party, for instance.) But such influence is, with rare exceptions, unintentional and, as I said earlier, in everything I've seen (with the possible exception of someone like Goodkind, who seems determined to preach) the sf and fantasy writers have stated repeatedly that they don't like the idea of prediction, but prefer to speculate and extrapolate according to the needs of the story and, if they are trying to make social commentary, it is in the nature of cautionary tales about where they see society headed, rather than trying to direct it in a particular direction (save away from the trend they are addressing).

[Princess Ivy]

Originally Posted by j. d. worthington

Well, on the subject of 1984... it was written in the mid-1940s, as I recall, and published in 1948 (hence the choice of numbers, only transposed); and Orwell was drawing on what he saw happening in Russia for his model of the society in the novel. .

i only found that out later, sitting in that classroom it was pretty impressive.

[The Ace]

HG Wells and Jules Verne are full of "Prophetic, " visions, probably due to their own scientific knowledge, but they were by no means infallible.
Verne's moon shot used a giant gun, and in 1938, London audiences laughed out loud as a vast fleet of bombers crossed the English Channel to flatten Anytown (a thinly-disguised London) in the film version of "The Shape of Things to Come." Two years later, the bombers came, only to be blasted out of the sky by the RAF.
Keep an eye on the future, certainly, but don't lie awake at night in terror.

[pyan]

You're caught on CC TV about 250 times a day in London.
Every time you use a credit card all the details go to a central computer, and these are available to all government agencies.
The government are well advanced in plans to introduce compulsory ID cards for everyone in the country, which will have to be carried at all times.

Big Brother is already here: but it's all for our own good!

[j. d. worthington]

Originally Posted by pyanfaruk

Big Brother is already here: but it's all for our own good!

Isn't it always?....