wheres she going to land?

[TK-421]

There's also Oldtown as a landing point, especially if those there working to bring her "home" have control of the maesters.

I was under the impression that King's Landing's fleet was somewhat depleted and whatever was left went to Dragonstone. Especially now that Auranne Waters took off with the four newly built warships...where to? Maybe to find Dany as he could of been planted by Varys.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Im pretty sure the bulk of the Highgarden fleet (the Arbor and the Shield Islands) is on the east coast which is why the Longships of the Squid had such an easy time taking said Shield Islands. Which would make the east coast a bad place to land and the west coast a good one...

You have to visualize a large ponderous fleet protected by significantly fewer reavers and cutters....quicker ships moving back and forth amongst the troop transports. A smaller quicker moving force could decimate the troop transports with an intelligent commander at the helm of a small flotilla.

I dont even know who controls Oldtown ostensibly. Im guessing its under control of Dorne in name only if nothing else. But if not I doubt it has a significant defense force. They would most likely capitulate anyhow and would make an excellent sally point into the lands of Highgarden

[Werthead]

Oldtown is controlled by House Hightower, who are extremely loyal to Highgarden. The chances of Oldtown rolling over for anyone are extremely low. The end of AFFC (when the Hightower forces repulse the ironborn attempt to burn the harbour) shows that. Also, the Redwyne fleet is en route back from Dragonstone to the Arbor and the Oldtown area, so the ironborn won't be holding that area much longer (especially given the Iron Fleet - their primary fighting force and the only one with ships larger than longboats - has sailed off to Slaver's Bay).

Dany's options are limited to an unopposed landing in Dorne or a contested landing further north. Landing in Dorne is difficult due to the coast - the only half-decent harbour is the one under Sunspear - but possible as long as it is supported from the shore. The next decent port to the north isn't until King's Landing or Duskendale. Landing on the Fingers is possible but Dany would need to secure safe passage from all the Free Cities and particularly Braavos (whose vast fleet isn't going to be happy at Dany's presumably enormous flotilla passing by: they may suspect that she'd turn and strike at rich Braavos instead).

Landing in Dorne, consolidating all the forces under her command into one and moving north would be the logical tactic. However, it would give the Tyrells and presumably their Lannister allies (assuming the events of AFFC haven't driven them apart) time to muster a force against them. However, a strike by Dorne up the kingsroad towards King's Landing whilst Dany lands by sea (or lands at Duskendale and comes down on KL from the north) would be extremely hazardous. The Dornish force would be vulnerable to attack by the more numerous Tyrells and stormlords on the way north.

Naturally Dany is getting advice from Barristan Selmy and

Tyrion Lannister, who remember knows King's Landing's defences in and out from the battle in A Clash of Kings

which means she may come up with something totally unexpected.

[Boaz]

Wert,very nice use of the Chronicles Spoiler Cryptex. Luckily, I know the combination.

Aegon, good stuff. Thanks.

Dorne does have a large coastline, but much of the land is unhospitable to non-natives. Arianne's small party had to plan well to cross Dorne, so I imagine an army would have a near impossible time of it.

Storm's End seems to be impregnable. It opens the way to the plains of the south and the road up to King's Landing. If Dany landed here and took the castle by storm or surprise (Stannis still holds it with a skeleton garrison), then she'd put a threat on the Highgarden flank allowing the Dornish armies to move up the passes. Logistically speaking, this is all I have to add... I'll bow to Aegon's wisdom.

Of the major houses of Westeros, the Martells (Dorne) and the Tyrells (Highgarden) are the two most loyal to the Targaryens... at least they were the last two to bend the knee to Robert... and it seems that they did so because 1) they read the writing on the wall, ie. they could not single-handedly stand up to the combined might of the Lannisters, Starks, Baratheons, Tullys, and Arryns and 2) they hate each other and refused to cooperate to continue the fight for the Targs (this is my conjecture, I don't really have hard proof). If you remember, Ned relieved Stannis at Storm's End thus ending the armed resistance of Mace Tyrell and all Targ loyalists (except for the three Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy). It seems that Doran bowed to the inevitable, well, seemingly, we now know he was already hatching the Viserys+Arianne plot.

So all that is to say, will Highgarden and Dorne both support Danaerys? Dorne will. But will the Tyrells? They may still be closet Targ loyalists or they may be extremely ambitious and eyeing the Iron Throne for themselves.

In favor of the Tyrells being closet Targs, first, Aegon the Conqueror made them the Lords of Highgarden and the Marches. Before this they were a supporting family of the previous dynasty. They owe their position and power to the Targs. The Lannisters seems to still regard the Tyrells as lower class nobility, even though they've been a major house for the last three hundred years. Second, Mace never joined Robert's rebellion. He only surrendered when the Targs were decisively defeated. Third, Olenna seems to be a major factor in Tyrell policy decisions. She's been around a long time. She may have personal interests in the Targs, ie. the Good Old Days. She may know the Lannisters and Arryns (the two eldest and noble houses of the Andals) will not allow an upstart house supplant them and rule over them. The Tyrells might guess that the greatest house in the land, after the Targaryens of course, is the best that they should hope for. Fourth, is Loras really hurt? A full body cast may be the way to disguise him. Other houses have sent male emissaries to Dany, why not House Tyrell? Tell everyone Loras is in a full body cast (who's gonna peel it off?) while Loras secretly rides to meet Dany? Fifth, Margaery is Queen, but she's never officially consumated any of her marriages. This keeps her husbands weak politically and ripe for supplanting because they have no heirs.

Perhaps the Tyrells want the Throne for themselves. First, the Martells and the Greyjoys are sending envoys to Dany, while it seems that the Martells have not. Seriously, would you entrust the survival of your family to the diplomatic skills of Loras? Neither would I. Second, Margaery has been crowned Queen of the Seven Kingdoms (three separate times). If Tommen were killed, would Dany just allow Margaery to quietly abdicate? Dany, herself, is living proof that you must kill all survivors of the previous dynasty or you are just putting off payment. Third, Mace seems very opportunistic. The support for Renly was not just for show. I believe it was a serious attempt by the Tyrells to make themselves the de facto rulers of Westeros. They knew Renly was gay. What if Renly never had a child with Margaery? Then I think the Tyrells would have gotten Renly to adopt Garlan as his heir and the Tyrell take over would have been complete. Or Olenna borrowing a page from the Targaryen history books would have sent Garlan or another Tyrell henchman to impregnate Margaery thus preserving the Tyrell hold on House Baratheon. Fourth, the Tyrells have lived for three hundred years with the Lannisters and Arryns in ascendence over them (and they might well live another three hundred years that way), but the thought of the Martells being the main power after Dany will really anger the Tyrells. They won't take a back seat to the Martells. If Dorne allies with Dany before Highgarden can, then this just might be the deciding factor for the Tyrells to oppose Danaerys I.

Happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the U.S.

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Irony or Coincidence?....I celebrated 4th of July with some Brits (thats the day they got rid of the religious zealots in their country doncha know), and I just celebrated Thankgiving with some (eastern) Indians....good times.

While I firmly bellieve Olenna is the female Petyr (pun intended I think) and not really a "closet Targ"....I enjoy building conspiracies...

What if Maergary's job was to ensure the lines of Lannister Kings was stunted....Maybe shes been sucking down milk of the poppy for a while now. Since her marriage to "hetero-Renly". Oh and the flagon that Pycelle mentioned was delivered sooner than hinted at? Oh maybe on the eve of her wedding to Joff, or earlier than that...you cant really deny it on the witness stand with "Oh no it was for Jofferys seed I wanted the baby killing juice"...Without heirs Dany doesnt run into this complication, and even better that could make the heir a Tyrell at some point. Its really a win/win for Olenna.....if she is working with Dany in some way then she is paving the way for Margie to be allowed to step down as queen and promote the Tyrell cause with the Targs, and if she isnt; she's making the throne for her family a possibility.

Its late, Im tired......good luck translating my slurred typing....

[Boaz]

Margaery has been taking the contraceptive drink to insure the King of Westeros has no progeny that will help some houses "on the fence" to come on in to the Targaryen fold? I like it.

I celebrated Christmas 1991 in Hong Kong with some Brits. I'd never consumed port before...

I celebrated July 4, 1992 in Hong Kong with some Brits. It's like they'll drink to anything...

[TK-421]

I think the Tyrells have sent the message loud and clear to Dany already by assassinating the first Lannister king and weakening the second.

And if they wanted to rule, and knowing what they know of Dany's rise as a threat to that power (being in the inner circle0, would they not have sent someone to kill her. The Queen of Thorns would of made certain of that.

The Tyrells are just biding their time as they usually do.

[Boaz]

TK, I'm with you... the Tyrells are for the Tyrells. I just like arguing both sides and being difficult.

[MemmoN]

Along with Tyrion shell travel to oldtown after picking up Arya in Bravos where she'll meet sam then to Dorne for a visit. Raise anchor to the Iron islands and THEN finally disembark up north where she'll face Jon and the truth! duhdhudhuDUN! maybe...

[Aegon the Unworthy]

Originally Posted by Werthead

Oldtown is controlled by House Hightower, who are extremely loyal to Highgarden. The chances of Oldtown rolling over for anyone are extremely low. The end of AFFC (when the Hightower forces repulse the ironborn attempt to burn the harbour) shows that. Also, the Redwyne fleet is en route back from Dragonstone to the Arbor and the Oldtown area, so the ironborn won't be holding that area much longer (especially given the Iron Fleet - their primary fighting force and the only one with ships larger than longboats - has sailed off to Slaver's Bay).

First, thanks Memmon for resetting this thread, I love this one.

Wert, help me out with this....didnt only Victarions portion of the fleet go sailing off. How many ships are his? It cant be that large a portion otherwise he'd a been named King right?

Next up, if most of the Arbors strength at sea is returning to defending their coastline now that that other siege is broken (what siege was that that Loras gave his looks to take?) wouldnt that mean the east coast is largely unprotected......that makes KL viable yes? Intelligence flows slowly over the sea so whatever Dany has (from that unnamed person who is travelling to join her perhaps) may be dated.

Reading up on ancient naval tactics, a deepwater port is not neccessary to off-load the troops (sue me Im airborne, how am I sposed to be abreast of amphibious assault techniques)....you would line up several of yer shallower draft vessels to make a bridge out to the off-shore troop transports. This is a very vulnerable time as usually yer shallow draft vessels are your cutters....your fleets protection. So your troop carriers are sitting ducks.

This being said a deepwater port would be most beneficial.....

And lastly, correct me if Im wrong....I was under the impression that Oldtown was some sort of academic sprawl. In other words, decidely lacking in a signficant military presence. Maybe they wouldnt surrender outright but its isolation makes it perfect for a limited engagement takeover. You know, land some troops in one of those ship bridges just down the coast....take the docks of Oldtown.....land troops.....assault whatever Citadel fortifications are opposed to you. The problems you always have with the viability of a siege is you are a fixed position and easily put in a vise if someone attempts to take you from behind. No one would arrive in Oldtown for weeks Im thinking if that were the case.

Really nothing specific above....just thoughts on various posts....

[Centurion]

what we all seem to be forgetting is that, there are two 'envoys' heading to Dany.
One of course is Doran Martell's son and his young knights,the other the not as pretty Victarion GreyJoy and his iron brutes.

So if either manages to 'persuade' her to go with them, she could be very likely heading to Sunspear, or Pyke.

E: argh, just read Boaz's post, and this thrice-damned post refuses to be deleted!

[Faceless Woman]

I severely doubt she is going to Pyke. I also doubt she is easily 'persuaded'. I think she will stay put for a time, content, until something forces her out like the death of her husband and child did last time. The fall of the Wall, perhaps?

[devilsgrin]

I don't think the fall of The Wall would bestir Dany into invasion/liberation i'd imagine her knowledge of the wall would be small to say the most, and its fall would be unlikely to affect her in any way. I think of the two envoys that are on their way one would appeal to Dany as a lover and friend, and the other as either an ally to join her, or to kill with an armada to be stolen... It could easily be that Victarion will end up dead or in thrall to Dany and his fleet belonging to her, thus providing Dany with the fleet necessary to transport an army large enough to conquor Westeros piece by piece. Kings Landing to me seems like the most likely... after stopping over and taking Dragonstone back.
Dany would certainly know that the Martells are her closest allies in Westeros and the most likely to keep faith with her should they allign as the Iron men are unlikely to be.

[Werthead]

Oldtown is a sprawling city, true, but the inner city, the oldest fortified major city in Westeros, is very defensible. The High Tower itself is counted as one of the most impregnable castles in Westeros after Harrenhal and perhaps Storm's End. Taking it would not be easy. House Hightower also has strong support from its vassals to the east along the Red Mountains. True, many of them are supporting the Tyrell army at Storm's End, but they retain enough strength to make taking Oldtown very problematic indeed.

There are individual galleys elsewhere among the ironborn - Euron's Silence is one such - but the only fleet with a large number of them is Victarion's. True, not the entire fleet has sailed to Slaver's Bay (unless Euron is an idiot), but certainly the greater part of its strength.

Correct, the weakening of the east coast may also factor into Dany's decision. Both the Royal Fleet and Stannis's fleet was decimated at the Battle of the Blackwater and the only remaining force - the half-rebuilt Royal Fleet under Aurane Waters - has done a runner, leaving the Redwynes as the sole Westerosi power in the Narrow Sea. With Dragonstone taken, they are now on their way back to the west coast leaving Braavos and Lys as the primary powers in the Narrow Sea (with Tyrosh and the other Free Cities not too far behind).

I am keen on the idea that Dany is somehow captured and taken back to Westeros by the ironborn against her will. This makes for a very interesting alternate take on how her invasion will take place, with her army racing after her in pursuit.

[Centurion]

I am keen on the idea that Dany is somehow captured and taken back to Westeros by the ironborn against her will.

Very highly unlikely, with her cold-blooded (literally) body guards around. remember ships and dragons dont mix well.