[j. d. worthington]

The problem is, much of the events that take place in the novel were mapped out well in advance of the Second World War; no few of them date back to the 1911-1920 period. As noted, the First World War did indeed have some influence, but the influence of the Second, from the evidence available, is very dubious. Nearly all the motivation, the power structure, the division of the sides, etc., date back to long before the war was looming on the horizon, so I'm afraid that rather shoots down that aspect of it.

As for the "enemy who has lain dormant", etc.... this is a part of Tolkien's worldview from the earliest writings, and has more to do with his religious beliefs than contemporary history. After all, he had much the same scenario with Melkor/Morgoth in the writings intended for the Silmarillion, and much of that (in its original form, at least) dates back to the earliest period of his career.

Tolkien's Foreword answers these things quite well, actually, and what he says there is backed up by the evidence of his papers and various other documents. It's a very dangerous thing to claim as an influence or "meaning" or allegory, etc., something that the writer him- or herself directly refutes, unless one has some very solid factual evidence to base such a claim on. After all, the writer was there, it is their experience, and they have the documents with which to back up their side of the story. In this case, much of that material has now been published, and it does indeed back Tolkien up.

As for the general issue... I think he also answered that best when he said: "I think that many confuse 'applicability' with 'allegory'; but the one resides in the freedom of the reader, and the other in the purposed domination of the author". The same may be said for finding "influences" on a writer's work; as literary history has proven time and again, that which seems the obvious influence is quite often not an influence at all, or is so in much more minor ways than one would think; while odd, obscure, and completely unexpected things turn out to have been the genuine driving cause and/or influence for an author's tale. As I said above, without some direct (rather than inferred) evidence to the contrary, the best bet with such things is to figure that the writer tends to know what he or she is talking about....